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Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT

Author

Listed:
  • Tewekel Melese Gemechu

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Hongling Zhao

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Shanshan Bao

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Cidan Yangzong

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Yingying Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Fengping Li

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Hongyan Li

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

Abstract

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Tewekel Melese Gemechu & Hongling Zhao & Shanshan Bao & Cidan Yangzong & Yingying Liu & Fengping Li & Hongyan Li, 2021. "Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9689-:d:624534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Junfang Liu & Baolin Xue & Yuhui Yan, 2020. "The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Aouissi, Jalel & Benabdallah, Sihem & Lili Chabaâne, Zohra & Cudennec, Christophe, 2016. "Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration assessment methods for hydrological modelling with SWAT—Application in data-scarce rural Tunisia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 39-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tudose, Nicu Constantin & Cheval, Sorin & Ungurean, Cezar & Broekman, Annelies & Sanchez-Plaza, Anabel & Cremades, Roger & Mitter, Hermine & Kropf, Bernadette & Davidescu, Serban Octavian & Dinca, Luc, 2022. "Climate services for sustainable resource management: The water—energy—land nexus in the Tărlung river basin (Romania)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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