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Modeling Collision Probability on Freeway: Accounting for Different Types and Severities in Various LOS

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Yang

    (Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Yao Wu

    (Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
    Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada)

  • Weihua Zhang

    (School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Jie Bao

    (Civil Aviation College, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

Abstract

In this study, collision-related data were collected on the I-880 freeway of California in the United States from 2006 to 2011. Our objective was to study the collision probability of different collision types and severities in different traffic states. The traffic states were divided by the traditional level of service (LOS) method. Various Bayesian conditional logit models have been established to analyze the relationship between the collision probability of different collision patterns and LOSs. The results showed that LOS A had the best safety performance associated with all of the collision types and severities, LOS C had the worst safety performance associated with hit object collisions, LOS D had the worst safety performance associated with sideswipe collisions and rear end collisions, and LOS F had the worst safety performance associated with injury collisions. The five-stage Bayesian random parameter sequential logit model was established to quantify the effects of different variables on the collision probability of various collision types and severities. In addition to LOS, the visibility, road surface, weather, ramp, and number of lanes had significant effects on different collision types and severities.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Yang & Yao Wu & Weihua Zhang & Jie Bao, 2020. "Modeling Collision Probability on Freeway: Accounting for Different Types and Severities in Various LOS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7386-:d:410881
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    References listed on IDEAS

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