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Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Kühnbach

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Felix Guthoff

    (Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstrasse 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Anke Bekk

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Ludger Eltrop

    (Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstrasse 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract

Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kühnbach & Felix Guthoff & Anke Bekk & Ludger Eltrop, 2020. "Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:4:p:773-:d:319047
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    1. Ritter, David & Heinemann, Christoph & Bauknecht, Dierk & Winger, Christian & Flachsbarth, Franziska, 2021. "Model-based evaluation of decentralised electricity markets at different phases of the German energy transition," EconStor Preprints 234104, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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