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Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin (Portugal)

Author

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  • Valverde, Pedro
  • Serralheiro, Ricardo
  • de Carvalho, Mário
  • Maia, Rodrigo
  • Oliveira, Bruno
  • Ramos, Vanessa

Abstract

This study evaluates climate change potential impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin, in the south of Portugal, by running long-term soil water balance simulations using the ISAREG model and taking into consideration the maximum potential yield. The ISAREG simulations were focused in a set of the most locally representative crops to assess the evolution of net and total water requirements, considering a monthly time step for two 30-year future periods, (2011–2040) and (2041–2070). Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani equation, and the simulations were performed using, as inputs, a combination of five climate change scenarios built using the Ensemble-Delta technique from CMIP3 climate projections datasets to set different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. Water balance outputs for different climate scenarios were combined with four agricultural scenarios allowing for the estimation of total irrigation requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Valverde, Pedro & Serralheiro, Ricardo & de Carvalho, Mário & Maia, Rodrigo & Oliveira, Bruno & Ramos, Vanessa, 2015. "Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin (Portugal)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 17-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:152:y:2015:i:c:p:17-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2014.12.012
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    13. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Santos, C. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2021. "Impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Santos, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2020. "Identifying adaptation strategies to climate change for Mediterranean olive orchards using impact response surfaces," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Ramos, Tiago B. & Darouich, Hanaa & Šimůnek, Jiří & Gonçalves, Maria C. & Martins, José C., 2019. "Soil salinization in very high-density olive orchards grown in southern Portugal: Current risks and possible trends," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 265-281.
    16. Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun & Nicholson, Charles F. & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Steenhuis, Tammo S., 2016. "Accounting for user expectations in the valuation of reliable irrigation water access in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 45-55.
    17. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
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    19. García-López, J. & García-Ruiz, R. & Domínguez, J. & Lorite, I.J., 2019. "Improving the sustainability of farming systems under semi-arid conditions by enhancing crop management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Vamsi Krishna Vema & K. P. Sudheer & A. N. Rohith & I. Chaubey, 2022. "Impact of water conservation structures on the agricultural productivity in the context of climate change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1627-1644, March.
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    22. García-López, J. & Lorite, I.J. & García-Ruiz, R. & Ordoñez, R. & Dominguez, J., 2016. "Yield response of sunflower to irrigation and fertilization under semi-arid conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 151-162.
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