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Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India

Author

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  • T. V. Lakshmi Kumar

    (Atmospheric Science Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Tamilnadu 603203, India)

  • Humberto Barbosa

    (Laboratory for Analyzing and Processing Satellite Images, Federal University of Alagoas, Av. Lourival Melo Mota, s/n, Tabuleiro do Martins, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil)

  • S. Madhu

    (Atmospheric Science Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Tamilnadu 603203, India)

  • K. Koteswara Rao

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra 411008, India)

Abstract

Trends of rice, wheat, maize, sorghum ( jowar ) and pearl millet ( bazra ) yields of India are studied in relation to water irrigation for the period 1951 to 2012. These crop yields have been subjected to correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), obtained from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (for 1982 to 2000) and Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra (for 2001 to 2012) to understand the linear association among them. Crop products and food inadequacy in percentage along with the average food production rate, available from FAO have been used in the present study. The present study mainly focuses on the estimation of return values of crop yields for different periods using Gumbell Extreme Value analysis. The present study is very important in the context of increased global food demands by 2050 where in many studies report that food production to be doubled by the year 2050 to meet the demands of increasing population. The main results of the study are: (i) significant positive correlations between NDVI and the crop yields during the study period; (ii) rice, maize and jowar yields did not show the required incremental rate while wheat and bajra yields are able to meet the expectations by the 2050. More efforts require to an increase of additional ~8% in the rice yields as the present growth is only ~12% and ought to be enhanced to ~20%.

Suggested Citation

  • T. V. Lakshmi Kumar & Humberto Barbosa & S. Madhu & K. Koteswara Rao, 2019. "Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4657-:d:261333
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    2. Humberto Alves Barbosa & T. V. Lakshmi Kumar & T. V. Lakshmi Kumar, 2012. "Strengthening Regional Capacities for Providing Remote Sensing Decision Support in Drylands in the Context of Climate Variability and Change," Chapters, in: Stephen Young & Steven Silvern (ed.), International Perspectives on Global Environmental Change, IntechOpen.
    3. T. Lakshmi Kumar & K. Koteswara Rao & Humberto Barbosa & R. Uma, 2014. "Trends and extreme value analysis of rainfall pattern over homogeneous monsoon regions of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 1003-1017, September.
    4. T. V. Lakshmi Kumar & Koteswara Rao & R. Uma & Humberto Barbosa & K. V. K. R. K. Patnaik & Emily Prabha Jothi, 2016. "On the relation of vegetation and southwest monsoon rainfall over Western Ghats, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 425-436, October.
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