IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i3p74-d381072.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Volatility of Non-Life Premium Risk Under Solvency II: Discussion of Danish Fire Insurance Data

Author

Listed:
  • Rocco Roberto Cerchiara

    (Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance “Giovanni Anania”, University of Calabria, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende (CS), Italy)

  • Francesco Acri

    (Independent Researcher, 20135 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

We studied the volatility assumption of non-life premium risk under the Solvency II Standard Formula and developed an empirical model on real data, the Danish fire insurance data. Our empirical model accomplishes two things. Primarily, compared to the present literature, this paper innovates the fitting of Danish fire insurance data using a composite model with a random threshold. Secondly we prove, by fitting the Danish fire insurance data, that for large insurance companies the volatility of the standard formula is higher than the volatility estimated with internal models such as composite models, also taking into account the dependence between attritional and large claims.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocco Roberto Cerchiara & Francesco Acri, 2020. "Estimating the Volatility of Non-Life Premium Risk Under Solvency II: Discussion of Danish Fire Insurance Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:74-:d:381072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/3/74/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/3/74/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Resnick, Sidney I., 1997. "Discussion of the Danish Data on Large Fire Insurance Losses," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 139-151, May.
    2. Weron, Rafał & Burnecki, Krzysztof, 2004. "Modeling the risk process in the XploRe computing environment," Papers 2004,08, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    3. Marcello Galeotti, 2015. "Computing the distribution of the sum of dependent random variables via overlapping hypercubes," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 231-255, October.
    4. Esmaeili, Habib & Klüppelberg, Claudia, 2010. "Parameter estimation of a bivariate compound Poisson process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 224-233, October.
    5. M. Concepcion Ausin & Michael P. Wiper & Rosa E. Lillo, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of finite time ruin probabilities," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 787-805, November.
    6. Gauss Cordeiro & Saralees Nadarajah & Edwin Ortega, 2012. "The Kumaraswamy Gumbel distribution," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(2), pages 139-168, June.
    7. Guillotte, Simon & Perron, Francois & Segers, Johan, 2011. "Non-parametric Bayesian inference on bivariate extremes," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2011011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Mathieu Pigeon & Michel Denuit, 2011. "Composite Lognormal–Pareto model with random threshold," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2011(3), pages 177-192.
    9. Pigeon, Mathieu & Denuit, Michel, 2011. "Composite Lognormal-Pareto model with random threshold," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2011020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. Arthur Charpentier & Abder Oulidi, 2010. "Beta kernel quantile estimators of heavy-tailed loss distributions," Post-Print halshs-00425566, HAL.
    11. McNeil, Alexander J., 1997. "Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 117-137, May.
    12. Drees, Holger & Müller, Peter, 2008. "Fitting and validation of a bivariate model for large claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 638-650, April.
    13. Simon Guillotte & François Perron & Johan Segers, 2011. "Non‐parametric Bayesian inference on bivariate extremes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(3), pages 377-406, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rocco Roberto Cerchiara & Francesco Acri, 2016. "Aggregate Loss Distribution And Dependence: Composite Models, Copula Functions And Fast Fourier Transform For The Danish Re Insurance Data," Working Papers 201608, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    2. Miljkovic, Tatjana & Grün, Bettina, 2016. "Modeling loss data using mixtures of distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 387-396.
    3. Athanasios Sachlas & Takis Papaioannou, 2014. "Residual and Past Entropy in Actuarial Science and Survival Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 79-99, March.
    4. Sarra Ghaddab & Manel Kacem & Christian Peretti & Lotfi Belkacem, 2023. "Extreme severity modeling using a GLM-GPD combination: application to an excess of loss reinsurance treaty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1105-1127, September.
    5. Semhar Michael & Tatjana Miljkovic & Volodymyr Melnykov, 2020. "Mixture modeling of data with multiple partial right-censoring levels," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(2), pages 355-378, June.
    6. S. A. Abu Bakar & Saralees Nadarajah & Z. A. Absl Kamarul Adzhar, 2018. "Loss modeling using Burr mixtures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1503-1516, June.
    7. Eling, Martin, 2012. "Fitting insurance claims to skewed distributions: Are the skew-normal and skew-student good models?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 239-248.
    8. Shi, Yue & Punzo, Antonio & Otneim, Håkon & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "Hidden semi-Markov models for rainfall-related insurance claims," Discussion Papers 2023/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Arthur Charpentier & Emmanuel Flachaire, 2021. "Pareto Models for Risk Management," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 355-387, Springer.
    10. Reynkens, Tom & Verbelen, Roel & Beirlant, Jan & Antonio, Katrien, 2017. "Modelling censored losses using splicing: A global fit strategy with mixed Erlang and extreme value distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 65-77.
    11. Sabourin, Anne & Naveau, Philippe, 2014. "Bayesian Dirichlet mixture model for multivariate extremes: A re-parametrization," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 542-567.
    12. Bernard, Carole & Kazzi, Rodrigue & Vanduffel, Steven, 2020. "Range Value-at-Risk bounds for unimodal distributions under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 9-24.
    13. de Carvalho, Miguel & Oumow, Boris & Segers, Johan & WarchoÅ‚, MichaÅ‚, 2012. "A Euclidean likelihood estimator for bivariate tail dependence," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    14. John Sang Jin Kang & Serge B. Provost & Jiandong Ren, 2019. "Moment-Based Density Approximation Techniques as Applied to Heavy-tailed Distributions," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 1-1, November.
    15. Bhati, Deepesh & Ravi, Sreenivasan, 2018. "On generalized log-Moyal distribution: A new heavy tailed size distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 247-259.
    16. Holger Drees, 2012. "Extreme value analysis of actuarial risks: estimation and model validation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(2), pages 225-264, June.
    17. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Krajina, A. & Segers, J., 2011. "An M-Estimator for Tail Dependence in Arbitrary Dimensions," Other publications TiSEM 27508aa0-9825-4d9e-b1f4-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Sabourin, Anne, 2015. "Semi-parametric modeling of excesses above high multivariate thresholds with censored data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 126-146.
    19. Bae, Taehan & Miljkovic, Tatjana, 2024. "Loss modeling with the size-biased lognormal mixture and the entropy regularized EM algorithm," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 182-195.
    20. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Krajina, A. & Segers, J., 2012. "An M-estimator for tail dependence in arbitrary dimensions," Other publications TiSEM 7d447c58-3e8f-4387-b36b-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:74-:d:381072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.