IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i1p23-d327778.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rational Savings Account Models for Backward-Looking Interest Rate Benchmarks

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Macrina

    (Department of Mathematics, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
    African Institute for Financial Markets and Risk Management, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa)

  • David Skovmand

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract

Interest rate benchmarks are currently undergoing a major transition. The LIBOR benchmark is planned to be discontinued by the end of 2021 and superseded by what ISDA calls an adjusted risk-free rate (RFR). ISDA has recently announced that the LIBOR replacement will most likely be constructed from a compounded running average of RFR overnight rates over a period matching the LIBOR tenor. This new backward-looking benchmark is markedly different when compared with LIBOR. It is measurable only at the end of the term in contrast to the forward-looking LIBOR, which is measurable at the start of the term. The RFR provides a simplification because the cash flows and the discount factors may be derived from the same discounting curve, thus avoiding—on a superficial level—any multi-curve complications. We develop a new class of savings account models and derive a novel interest rate system specifically designed to facilitate a high degree of tractability for the pricing of RFR-based fixed-income instruments. The rational form of the savings account models under the risk-neutral measure enables the pricing in closed form of caplets, swaptions and futures written on the backward-looking interest rate benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Macrina & David Skovmand, 2020. "Rational Savings Account Models for Backward-Looking Interest Rate Benchmarks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:23-:d:327778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/1/23/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/1/23/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Macrina, 2014. "Heat Kernel Models For Asset Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(07), pages 1-34.
    2. Jirô Akahori & Andrea Macrina, 2022. "Heat Kernel Interest Rate Models With Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Processes," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dorje Brody & Lane Hughston & Andrea Macrina (ed.), Financial Informatics An Information-Based Approach to Asset Pricing, chapter 9, pages 179-193, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Christa Cuchiero & Damir Filipovi'c & Eberhard Mayerhofer & Josef Teichmann, 2009. "Affine processes on positive semidefinite matrices," Papers 0910.0137, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    4. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    6. Marc Pierre Henrard, 2019. "LIBOR Fallback and Quantitative Finance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Miltersen, Kristian R & Sandmann, Klaus & Sondermann, Dieter, 1997. "Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 409-430, March.
    8. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Papers 1801.04994, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Jacob Gyntelberg & Philip Wooldridge, 2008. "Interbank rate fixings during the recent turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, March.
    11. Jiro Akahori & Yuji Hishida & Josef Teichmann & Takahiro Tsuchiya, 2009. "A Heat Kernel Approach to Interest Rate Models," Papers 0910.5033, arXiv.org.
    12. Marek Rutkowski, 1997. "A note on the Flesaker-Hughston model of the term structure of interest rates," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 151-163.
    13. Stéphane Crépey & Andrea Macrina & Tuyet Mai Nguyen & David Skovmand, 2016. "Rational multi-curve models with counterparty-risk valuation adjustments," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 847-866, June.
    14. Damir Filipović & Martin Larsson & Anders B. Trolle, 2017. "Linear-Rational Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 655-704, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Fontana, 2022. "Caplet pricing in affine models for alternative risk-free rates," Papers 2202.09116, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2021. "Dynamic term structure models for SOFR futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1520-1544, October.
    3. Sander Willems, 2020. "SABR smiles for RFR caplets," Papers 2004.04501, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    4. Alessandro Gnoatto & Silvia Lavagnini, 2023. "Cross-Currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework in the Multiple-Curve Setting," Papers 2312.13057, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity," Papers 2202.00929, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Papers 1801.04994, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    2. Henrik Dam & Andrea Macrina & David Skovmand & David Sloth, 2018. "Rational Models for Inflation-Linked Derivatives," Papers 1801.08804, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    3. Andrea Macrina & Obeid Mahomed, 2018. "Consistent Valuation Across Curves Using Pricing Kernels," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, March.
    4. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Markus Hess, 2019. "An Arithmetic Pure-Jump Multi-Curve Interest Rate Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Christa Cuchiero & Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto, 2019. "Affine multiple yield curve models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 568-611, April.
    8. Stephane Crepey & Andrea Macrina & Tuyet Mai Nguyen & David Skovmand, 2015. "Rational Multi-Curve Models with Counterparty-Risk Valuation Adjustments," Papers 1502.07397, arXiv.org.
    9. Misha Beek & Michel Mandjes & Peter Spreij & Erik Winands, 2020. "Regime switching affine processes with applications to finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 309-333, April.
    10. Andrea Macrina & Priyanka Parbhoo, 2014. "Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(4), pages 281-315, November.
    11. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    12. Massoud Heidari & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates, Yield Curve Residuals, and the Consistent Pricing of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Derivatives," Finance 0207010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2002.
    13. Raj Kumari Bahl & Sotirios Sabanis, 2017. "General Price Bounds for Guaranteed Annuity Options," Papers 1707.00807, arXiv.org.
    14. Lixin Wu & Fan Zhang, 2008. "Fast swaption pricing under the market model with a square-root volatility process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 163-180.
    15. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    16. Hinnerich, Mia, 2008. "Inflation-indexed swaps and swaptions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2293-2306, November.
    17. Ernst Eberlein & Christoph Gerhart & Zorana Grbac, 2019. "Multiple curve Lévy forward price model allowing for negative interest rates," Post-Print hal-03898912, HAL.
    18. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    19. Cheikh Mbaye & Frédéric Vrins, 2022. "Affine term structure models: A time‐change approach with perfect fit to market curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 678-724, April.
    20. Mayerhofer, Eberhard & Stelzer, Robert & Vestweber, Johanna, 2020. "Geometric ergodicity of affine processes on cones," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(7), pages 4141-4173.
    21. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 2007-2057, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:23-:d:327778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.