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Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels

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  • Andrea Macrina
  • Priyanka Parbhoo

Abstract

Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only through best estimates based on noisy market information. The concept of incomplete information introduces an element of stochastic filtering theory in constructing what we term “filtered Esscher martingales”. We make use of this family of martingales to develop pricing kernel models. Examples of bond price models are examined, and we show that the choice of the random mixture has a significant effect on the model dynamics and the types of movements observed in the associated yield curves. Parameter sensitivity is analysed and option price processes are derived. We extend the class of pricing kernel models by considering a weighted heat kernel approach, and develop models driven by mixtures of Markov processes. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Macrina & Priyanka Parbhoo, 2014. "Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(4), pages 281-315, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:281-315
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-014-9186-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Jirô Akahori & Andrea Macrina, 2022. "Heat Kernel Interest Rate Models With Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Processes," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dorje Brody & Lane Hughston & Andrea Macrina (ed.), Financial Informatics An Information-Based Approach to Asset Pricing, chapter 9, pages 179-193, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    7. Dorje C. Brody & Lane P. Hughston & Ewan Mackie, 2010. "Rational term structure models with geometric Levy martingales," Papers 1012.1793, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    8. L. C. G. Rogers, 1997. "The Potential Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 157-176, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephane Crepey & Andrea Macrina & Tuyet Mai Nguyen & David Skovmand, 2015. "Rational Multi-Curve Models with Counterparty-Risk Valuation Adjustments," Papers 1502.07397, arXiv.org.

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