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Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options

Author

Listed:
  • Julian Winkel

    (International Research Training Group 1792, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle

    (BRC Blockchain Research Center, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Sim Kee Boon Institute, Singapore Management University, Singapore 178899, Singapore
    WISE Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
    Department of Information Management and Finance, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan)

Abstract

Bitcoin Pricing Kernels (PKs) are estimated using a novel data set from Deribit, the leading Bitcoin options exchange. The PKs, as the ratio between risk-neutral and physical density, dynamically reflect the change in investor preferences. Thus, the PKs improve the understanding of investor expectations and risk premiums in a new asset class. Bootstrap-based confidence bands are estimated in order to validate the results. Investors are heterogeneous in their risk profiles and preferences with respect to volatility and investment horizon. The empirical PKs turn out to be U-shaped for short-dated instruments and W-shaped for long-dated instruments. We find that investors are willing to pay a substantial risk premium to insure themselves against short-term price movements. The risk premium is smaller for longer-dated instruments and their traders are risk averse. The shape of the empirical PKs reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. The similarity between the shape of empirical PKs for Bitcoin and other markets that represent aggregate wealth shows that Bitcoin is becoming an established asset class.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Winkel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:85-:d:1137149
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander, Carol & Deng, Jun & Feng, Jianfen & Wan, Huning, 2023. "Net buying pressure and the information in bitcoin option trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2022. "Bitcoin: An inflation hedge but not a safe haven," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    3. Smaniotto, Emanuelle Nava & Neto, Giacomo Balbinotto, 2022. "Speculative trading in Bitcoin: A Brazilian market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 47-54.
    4. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    5. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    6. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Schmidt, Peter, 2004. "Skewness and Kurtosis Trades," Papers 2004,09, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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