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Net Buying Pressure and the Information in Bitcoin Option Trades

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  • Carol Alexander
  • Jun Deng
  • Jianfen Feng
  • Huning Wan

Abstract

How do supply and demand from informed traders drive market prices of bitcoin options? Deribit options tick-level data supports the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis about the market maker's supply. The main demand-side effects are that at-the-money option prices are largely driven by volatility traders and out-of-the-money options are simultaneously driven by volatility traders and those with proprietary information about the direction of future bitcoin price movements. The demand-side trading results contrast with prior studies on established options markets in the US and Asia, but we also show that Deribit is rapidly evolving into a more efficient channel for aggregating information from informed traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Alexander & Jun Deng & Jianfen Feng & Huning Wan, 2021. "Net Buying Pressure and the Information in Bitcoin Option Trades," Papers 2109.02776, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.02776
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yeguang Chi & Qionghua & Chu & Wenyan Hao, 2024. "Return-forecasting and Volatility-forecasting Power of On-chain Activities in the Cryptocurrency Market," Papers 2411.06327, arXiv.org.
    2. Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Rachel J. Nam & Ye Yuan, 2023. "Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10598, CESifo.
    3. Julian Winkel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Carol Alexander & Ding Chen & Arben Imeraj, 2023. "Crypto quanto and inverse options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1005-1043, October.
    5. Dammak, Wael & Hamad, Salah Ben & de Peretti, Christian & Eleuch, Hichem, 2023. "Pricing of European currency options considering the dynamic information costs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Danial Saef & Odett Nagy & Sergej Sizov & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2024. "Understanding temporal dynamics of jumps in cryptocurrency markets: evidence from tick-by-tick data," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 605-638, December.
    7. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "Crypto carry," BIS Working Papers 1087, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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