IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/caseps/200409.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Skewness and Kurtosis Trades

Author

Listed:
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Blaskowitz, Oliver J.
  • Schmidt, Peter

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the profitability of ?skewness trades? and ?kurtosis trades? based on comparisons of implied state price densities versus historical densities. In particular, we examine the ability of SPD comparisons to detect structural breaks in the options market behaviour. While the implied state price density is estimated by means of the Barle and Cakici Implied Binomial Tree algorithm using a cross section of DAX option prices, the historical density is inferred by a combination of a non?parametric estimation from a historical time series of the DAX index and a forward Monte Carlo simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Schmidt, Peter, 2004. "Skewness and Kurtosis Trades," Papers 2004,09, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:caseps:200409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22183/1/09_ob_wh_ps.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Härdle, Wolfgang & Zheng, Jun, 2002. "How precise are price distributions predicted by implied binomial trees?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,1, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Hardle, W. & Tsybakov, A., 1997. "Local polynomial estimators of the volatility function in nonparametric autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 223-242, November.
    3. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    7. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Kopczewska, 2014. "L-moments skewness and kurtosis as measures of regional convergence and cohesion," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(4), pages 251-266, November.
    2. silvia Muzzioli & Alessio Ruggieri, 2013. "Option Implied Trees and Implied Moments," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0015, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Julian Winkel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Gabrielsen, Alexandros, 2013. "Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3125-3144.
    6. Huimin Zhao & Jin E. Zhang & Eric C. Chang, 2013. "The Relation between Physical and Risk-neutral Cumulants," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 345-381, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Monteiro, Ana Margarida & Tutuncu, Reha H. & Vicente, Luis N., 2008. "Recovering risk-neutral probability density functions from options prices using cubic splines and ensuring nonnegativity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 525-542, June.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    4. Joe Akira Yoshino, 2003. "Market Risk and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 385-403, November.
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H., 2018. "Option-implied objective measures of market risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 241-249.
    7. Patrick Dennis & Stewart Mayhew, 2009. "Microstructural biases in empirical tests of option pricing models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 169-191, October.
    8. Silvia Muzzioli, 2010. "Towards a volatility index for the Italian stock market," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 10091, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. Kim, In Joon & Park, Gun Youb, 2006. "An empirical comparison of implied tree models for KOSPI 200 index options," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 52-71.
    10. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
    11. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Patrick Luennemann & Dirk Mevis, 2008. "Eurosystem communication and financial market expectations," BCL working papers 30, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Rama CONT, 1998. "Beyond implied volatility: extracting information from option prices," Finance 9804002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Information Content of Option-Based Forecasts of Volatility: Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-46.
    15. Alessandro Beber, 2001. "Determinants of the implied volatility function on the Italian Stock Market," LEM Papers Series 2001/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Szu, Wen-Ming & Wang, Ming-Chun & Yang, Wan-Ru, 2011. "The determinants of exchange settlement practices and the implication of volatility smile: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 826-838, October.
    17. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Charalambous, Chris & Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2010. "Generalized parameter functions for option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 633-646, March.
    18. Arindam Kundu & Sumit Kumar & Nutan Kumar Tomar, 2019. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Density Estimation: A Robust and Flexible Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 705-728, August.
    19. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    20. Wan-Ni Lai, 2014. "Comparison of methods to estimate option implied risk-neutral densities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 1839-1855, October.
    21. Almeida, Caio & Freire, Gustavo, 2022. "Pricing of index options in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 174-205.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:caseps:200409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cahubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.