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Net buying pressure and the information in bitcoin option trades

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  • Alexander, Carol
  • Deng, Jun
  • Feng, Jianfen
  • Wan, Huning

Abstract

Bitcoin prices are driven by upward as well as downward jumps and so the bitcoin implied volatility surface behaves differently from those of established options markets. We analyze tick-level Deribit option price data, demonstrating increasing support for the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis. Hence market makers are managing order imbalance and inventory more effectively as Deribit bitcoin options trading volumes increases. On the demand side, volatility traders drive both at-the-money and out-of-the-money option prices, the latter also being driven by directional traders. Directional effects were most pronounced during the price bubble of 2021. Further refinements of our tests assess time-to-maturity and time-of-day effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander, Carol & Deng, Jun & Feng, Jianfen & Wan, Huning, 2023. "Net buying pressure and the information in bitcoin option trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:63:y:2023:i:c:s1386418122000544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2022.100764
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    Cited by:

    1. Yeguang Chi & Qionghua & Chu & Wenyan Hao, 2024. "Return-forecasting and Volatility-forecasting Power of On-chain Activities in the Cryptocurrency Market," Papers 2411.06327, arXiv.org.
    2. Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Rachel J. Nam & Ye Yuan, 2023. "Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10598, CESifo.
    3. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "Crypto carry," BIS Working Papers 1087, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Julian Winkel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Dammak, Wael & Hamad, Salah Ben & de Peretti, Christian & Eleuch, Hichem, 2023. "Pricing of European currency options considering the dynamic information costs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deribit options; Sophisticated traders; Market makers; Volatility information; Directional information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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