IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jresou/v11y2022i6p59-d843274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Casper Boongaling Agaton

    (Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University, Kriekenpitplein 21-22, 3584 EC Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Department of Community and Environmental Resource Planning, College of Human Ecology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, College, Laguna 4031, Philippines)

Abstract

Geopolitical conflicts, involving a major player in the world market, affect the prices of oil and commodities, particularly in oil-importing countries. Consequently, the unprecedented changes in oil prices impact investments in energy transition projects. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of investment decisions in energy transition under uncertainties in geopolitical risks. This research applies the Black-Scholes-based real options valuation to value the flexibility in postponing energy transition investments considering the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war. Applying the proposed model to the case of the Philippines, the valuation result with a net present value of USD 231 million for a 1 GW capacity shows that energy transition is a viable project when the cost savings from using fossil fuels to renewables are considered. On the other hand, real options valuation finds a higher flexibility value of USD 990 million, which implies a better decision to postpone the project. The uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts further increases this value causing a longer waiting period to implement the energy transition project. Sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust to changes in the explanatory variables. Results provide policy implications on making an oil-importing country energy self-sufficient and robust from economic and geopolitical shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:11:y:2022:i:6:p:59-:d:843274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/11/6/59/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/11/6/59/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "How oil prices affect East and Southeast Asian economies: Evidence from financial markets and implications for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 628-638.
    2. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    3. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    5. Zambujal-Oliveira, João & Mouta-Lopes, Manuel & Bangueses, Ricardo, 2021. "Real options appraisal of forestry investments under information scarcity in biomass markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Zhang, Xun & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2009. "Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price: An EMD-based event analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 768-778, September.
    10. Ewald, Christian Oliver & Taub, Bart, 2022. "Real options, risk aversion and markets: A corporate finance perspective," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    12. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
    13. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2021. "Using real options to value capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    14. Gürsan, C. & de Gooyert, V., 2021. "The systemic impact of a transition fuel: Does natural gas help or hinder the energy transition?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Ofori, Charles Gyamfi & Bokpin, Godfred Alufar & Aboagye, Anthony Q.Q. & Afful-Dadzie, Anthony, 2021. "A real options approach to investment timing decisions in utility-scale renewable energy in Ghana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    16. Jiang, Peng & Fan, Yee Van & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on energy demand and consumption: Challenges, lessons and emerging opportunities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Tom Coppens & Maarten Van Acker & Thomas Machiels & Tine Compernolle, 2021. "A real options framework for adaptive urban design," Journal of Urban Design, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 681-698, November.
    18. Lavinia Javier Cueto & April Faith Deleon Frisnedi & Reynaldo Baculio Collera & Kenneth Ian Talosig Batac & Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Digital Innovations in MSMEs during Economic Disruptions: Experiences and Challenges of Young Entrepreneurs," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    19. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    20. Volk-Makarewicz, Warren & Borovkova, Svetlana & Heidergott, Bernd, 2022. "Assessing the impact of jumps in an option pricing model: A gradient estimation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 740-751.
    21. Floros Flouros & Victoria Pistikou & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2022. "Geopolitical Risk as a Determinant of Renewable Energy Investments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    22. Li, Longxi & Cao, Xilin, 2022. "Comprehensive effectiveness assessment of energy storage incentive mechanisms for PV-ESS projects based on compound real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    23. Sheha, Moataz & Mohammadi, Kasra & Powell, Kody, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis of the impact of dynamic electricity prices on solar penetration in a smart grid environment with distributed energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    24. Charmaine Samala Guno & Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Socio-Economic and Environmental Analyses of Solar Irrigation Systems for Sustainable Agricultural Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, June.
    25. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    26. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    27. Bangjun, Wang & Feng, Zhaolei & Feng, Ji & Yu, Pan & Cui, Linyu, 2022. "Decision making on investments in photovoltaic power generation projects based on renewable portfolio standard: Perspective of real option," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1033-1045.
    28. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    29. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Topcu, Betül Altay & Sarıgül, Sevgi Sümerli & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The effect of financial development on renewable energy demand: The case of developing countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1370-1380.
    30. Thomas, Melanee & DeCillia, Brooks & Santos, John B. & Thorlakson, Lori, 2022. "Great expectations: Public opinion about energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    31. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    32. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    33. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    34. Tian, Jinfang & Yu, Longguang & Xue, Rui & Zhuang, Shan & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    35. Wang, Yijing & Geng, Xueqing & Guo, Kun, 2022. "The influence of international oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of countries along the “Belt and Road”," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    36. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    37. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    38. Bai, Bo & Wang, Yihan & Fang, Cong & Xiong, Siqin & Ma, Xiaoming, 2021. "Efficient deployment of solar photovoltaic stations in China: An economic and environmental perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Vakili, Seyedvahid & Ölçer, Aykut I., 2023. "Are battery-powered vessels the best solution for the domestic ferry segment? Case study for the domestic ferry segment in the Philippines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    3. Jiang, Zhengyu & Zhang, Xinyi & Zhao, Yingzhi & Li, Chengming & Wang, Zeyu, 2023. "The impact of urban digital transformation on resource sustainability: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi & Ozkan, Oktay & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2023. "Is renewable energy use lowering resource-related uncertainties?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Yang, Changhui & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu & He, Lijun, 2023. "Photovoltaic project investment based on the real options method: An analysis of the East China power grid region," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    5. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, October.
    7. Raffaele Oriani & Luigi Sereno, 2011. "Advanced Valuation Methods: The Real Options Approach," Chapters, in: Federico Munari & Raffaele Oriani (ed.), The Economic Valuation of Patents, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Carol Alexandra & Leonardo M. Nogueira, 2005. "Optimal Hedging and Scale Inavriance: A Taxonomy of Option Pricing Models," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Nov 2005.
    9. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    10. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    12. Viktor Stojkoski & Trifce Sandev & Lasko Basnarkov & Ljupco Kocarev & Ralf Metzler, 2020. "Generalised geometric Brownian motion: Theory and applications to option pricing," Papers 2011.00312, arXiv.org.
    13. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    14. Raisa Pérez-Vas & Félix Puime Guillén & Joaquín Enríquez-Díaz, 2021. "Valuation of a Company Producing and Trading Seaweed for Human Consumption: Classical Methods vs. Real Options," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    15. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    16. Jiyeon Yun & James M. Carson & David L. Eckles, 2023. "Executive compensation and corporate risk management," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 521-557, June.
    17. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Li, Zhe & Zhuang, Le, 2017. "European option pricing under the Student’s t noise with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 848-858.
    18. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    19. Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Drimus & Walter Farkas, 2019. "A general closed form option pricing formula," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-40, April.
    20. Rafal M. Wojakowski & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Aziz Jaafar & Murizah Osman Salleh, 2019. "Can Loan Valuation Adjustment (LVA) approach immunize collateralized debt from defaults?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 141-158, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:11:y:2022:i:6:p:59-:d:843274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.