IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i10p1095-d553353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Sampling-Based Sensitivity Analysis Method Considering the Uncertainties of Input Variables and Their Distribution Parameters

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang Peng

    (College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
    State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

  • Xiaoqing Xu

    (College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China)

  • Jiquan Li

    (College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China)

  • Shaofei Jiang

    (College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China)

Abstract

For engineering products with uncertain input variables and distribution parameters, a sampling-based sensitivity analysis methodology was investigated to efficiently determine the influences of these uncertainties. In the calculation of the sensitivity indices, the nonlinear degrees of the performance function in the subintervals were greatly reduced by using the integral whole domain segmentation method, while the mean and variance of the performance function were calculated using the unscented transformation method. Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method, the loop number and sampling number in every loop were decreased by using the multiplication approximation and Gaussian integration methods. The proposed algorithm also reduced the calculation complexity by reusing the sample points in the calculation of two sensitivity indices to measure the influence of input variables and their distribution parameters. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm were verified with three numerical examples and one engineering example.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Peng & Xiaoqing Xu & Jiquan Li & Shaofei Jiang, 2021. "A Sampling-Based Sensitivity Analysis Method Considering the Uncertainties of Input Variables and Their Distribution Parameters," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:10:p:1095-:d:553353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/10/1095/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/10/1095/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saltelli, Andrea & Ratto, Marco & Tarantola, Stefano & Campolongo, Francesca, 2006. "Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1109-1125.
    2. Li, Luyi & Lu, Zhenzhou, 2018. "A new method for model validation with multivariate output," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 579-592.
    3. Steiner, M. & Bourinet, J.-M. & Lahmer, T., 2019. "An adaptive sampling method for global sensitivity analysis based on least-squares support vector regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 323-340.
    4. Sudret, Bruno, 2008. "Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 964-979.
    5. Lo Piano, Samuele & Ferretti, Federico & Puy, Arnald & Albrecht, Daniel & Saltelli, Andrea, 2021. "Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Mara, Thierry A. & Tarantola, Stefano, 2012. "Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 115-121.
    7. Lamboni, Matieyendou, 2019. "Multivariate sensitivity analysis: Minimum variance unbiased estimators of the first-order and total-effect covariance matrices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 67-92.
    8. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    9. Proppe, Carsten, 2021. "Local reliability based sensitivity analysis with the moving particles method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Yeratapally, Saikumar R. & Glavicic, Michael G. & Argyrakis, Christos & Sangid, Michael D., 2017. "Bayesian uncertainty quantification and propagation for validation of a microstructure sensitive model for prediction of fatigue crack initiation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 110-123.
    11. Sankararaman, Shankar & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2011. "Likelihood-based representation of epistemic uncertainty due to sparse point data and/or interval data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 814-824.
    12. Chakraborty, Souvik & Chowdhury, Rajib, 2017. "A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 50-57.
    13. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    14. Antoniadis, Anestis & Lambert-Lacroix, Sophie & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2021. "Random forests for global sensitivity analysis: A selective review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    15. Schöbi, Roland & Sudret, Bruno, 2019. "Global sensitivity analysis in the context of imprecise probabilities (p-boxes) using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 129-141.
    16. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    17. Rocco Sanseverino, Claudio M. & Ramirez-Marquez, José Emmanuel, 2014. "Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in system reliability assessment via unscented transformation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 176-185.
    18. Yun, Wanying & Lu, Zhenzhou & Jiang, Xian, 2019. "An efficient method for moment-independent global sensitivity analysis by dimensional reduction technique and principle of maximum entropy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 174-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zdeněk Kala, 2022. "Quantification of Model Uncertainty Based on Variance and Entropy of Bernoulli Distribution," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Congcong Zhou & Zhenzhong Shen & Liqun Xu & Yiqing Sun & Wenbing Zhang & Hongwei Zhang & Jiayi Peng, 2023. "Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Embankment Dam Slope Stability Considering Seepage–Stress Coupling under Changing Reservoir Water Levels," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xin & Molina-Cristóbal, Arturo & Guenov, Marin D. & Riaz, Atif, 2019. "Efficient method for variance-based sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 97-115.
    2. Wu, Zeping & Wang, Wenjie & Wang, Donghui & Zhao, Kun & Zhang, Weihua, 2019. "Global sensitivity analysis using orthogonal augmented radial basis function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 291-302.
    3. Konakli, Katerina & Sudret, Bruno, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 64-83.
    4. Tabandeh, Armin & Sharma, Neetesh & Gardoni, Paolo, 2022. "Uncertainty propagation in risk and resilience analysis of hierarchical systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Wang, Zhenqiang & Jia, Gaofeng, 2020. "Augmented sample-based approach for efficient evaluation of risk sensitivity with respect to epistemic uncertainty in distribution parameters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Shang, Xiaobing & Su, Li & Fang, Hai & Zeng, Bowen & Zhang, Zhi, 2023. "An efficient multi-fidelity Kriging surrogate model-based method for global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Torii, André Jacomel & Novotny, Antonio André, 2021. "A priori error estimates for local reliability-based sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Jung, WoongHee & Taflanidis, Alexandros A., 2023. "Efficient global sensitivity analysis for high-dimensional outputs combining data-driven probability models and dimensionality reduction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Lambert, Romain S.C. & Lemke, Frank & Kucherenko, Sergei S. & Song, Shufang & Shah, Nilay, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using sparse high dimensional model representations generated by the group method of data handling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 42-54.
    10. Deman, G. & Konakli, K. & Sudret, B. & Kerrou, J. & Perrochet, P. & Benabderrahmane, H., 2016. "Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 156-169.
    11. Melito, Gian Marco & Müller, Thomas Stephan & Badeli, Vahid & Ellermann, Katrin & Brenn, Günter & Reinbacher-Köstinger, Alice, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis study on the effect of the fluid mechanics assumptions for the computation of electrical conductivity of flowing human blood," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. McFarland, John & DeCarlo, Erin, 2020. "A Monte Carlo framework for probabilistic analysis and variance decomposition with distribution parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Ehre, Max & Papaioannou, Iason & Straub, Daniel, 2020. "Global sensitivity analysis in high dimensions with PLS-PCE," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Deman, G. & Kerrou, J. & Benabderrahmane, H. & Perrochet, P., 2015. "Sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy to hydro-dispersive parameters: The case of ANDRA Meuse/Haute-Marne site," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 276-286.
    15. Shang, Yue & Nogal, Maria & Teixeira, Rui & Wolfert, A.R. (Rogier) M., 2024. "Extreme-oriented sensitivity analysis using sparse polynomial chaos expansion. Application to train–track–bridge systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    16. Wei, Pengfei & Lu, Zhenzhou & Song, Jingwen, 2015. "Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 399-432.
    17. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    18. Anstett-Collin, F. & Goffart, J. & Mara, T. & Denis-Vidal, L., 2015. "Sensitivity analysis of complex models: Coping with dynamic and static inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 268-275.
    19. Nogal, M. & Nogal, A., 2021. "Sensitivity method for extreme-based engineering problems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Azzini, Ivano & Rosati, Rossana, 2021. "Sobol’ main effect index: an Innovative Algorithm (IA) using Dynamic Adaptive Variances," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:10:p:1095-:d:553353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.