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Linearization of the Kingman Coalescent

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  • Paul F. Slade

    (Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Unit, Research School of Biology, R.N. Robertson Building 46, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia)

Abstract

Kingman’s coalescent process is a mathematical model of genealogy in which only pairwise common ancestry may occur. Inter-arrival times between successive coalescence events have a negative exponential distribution whose rate equals the combinatorial term ( n 2 ) where n denotes the number of lineages present in the genealogy. These two standard constraints of Kingman’s coalescent, obtained in the limit of a large population size, approximate the exact ancestral process of Wright-Fisher or Moran models under appropriate parameterization. Calculation of coalescence event probabilities with higher accuracy quantifies the dependence of sample and population sizes that adhere to Kingman’s coalescent process. The convention that probabilities of leading order N − 2 are negligible provided n ≪ N is examined at key stages of the mathematical derivation. Empirically, expected genealogical parity of the single-pair restricted Wright-Fisher haploid model exceeds 99% where n ≤ 1 2 N 3 ; similarly, per expected interval where n ≤ 1 2 N / 6 . The fractional cubic root criterion is practicable, since although it corresponds to perfect parity and to an extent confounds identifiability it also accords with manageable conditional probabilities of multi-coalescence.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul F. Slade, 2018. "Linearization of the Kingman Coalescent," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-27, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:6:y:2018:i:5:p:82-:d:146226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sargsyan, Ori & Wakeley, John, 2008. "A coalescent process with simultaneous multiple mergers for approximating the gene genealogies of many marine organisms," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 104-114.
    2. Steinrücken, Matthias & Birkner, Matthias & Blath, Jochen, 2013. "Analysis of DNA sequence variation within marine species using Beta-coalescents," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 15-24.
    3. Heuer, Benjamin & Sturm, Anja, 2013. "On spatial coalescents with multiple mergers in two dimensions," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 90-104.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul F. Slade, 2019. "Dominant Cubic Coefficients of the ‘1/3-Rule’ Reduce Contest Domains," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-11, May.

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