IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i21p4001-d956239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of COVID-19 Data Using an ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Forecast Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yongchao Jin

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Renfang Wang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Xiaodie Zhuang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Kenan Wang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Honglian Wang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Chenxi Wang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Xiyin Wang

    (College of Sciences, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to study the spread of COVID-19, establish a predictive model, and provide guidance for its prevention and control. Considering the high complexity of epidemic data, we adopted an ARIMA-LSTM combined model to describe and predict future transmission. A new method of the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient was proposed. Then, we used the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient, ARIMA model, and ARIMA-LSTM series model to predict the epidemic data in China, and we found that the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient had the best prediction accuracy. In the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient, MSE = 4049.913, RMSE = 63.639, MAPE = 0.205, R 2 = 0.837, MAE = 44.320. In order to verify the effectiveness of the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient, we compared the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient with the SVR model and found that ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient has better prediction accuracy. It was further verified with the epidemic data of India and found that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient was still higher than that of the SVR model. In the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient, MSE = 744,904.6, RMSE = 863.079, MAPE = 0.107, R 2 = 0.983, MAE = 580.348. Finally, we used the ARIMA-LSTM model paralleling by weight of regression coefficient to predict the future epidemic situation in China. We found that in the next 60 days, the epidemic situation in China will become a steady downward trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongchao Jin & Renfang Wang & Xiaodie Zhuang & Kenan Wang & Honglian Wang & Chenxi Wang & Xiyin Wang, 2022. "Prediction of COVID-19 Data Using an ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Forecast Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:21:p:4001-:d:956239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/21/4001/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/21/4001/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeroual, Abdelhafid & Harrou, Fouzi & Dairi, Abdelkader & Sun, Ying, 2020. "Deep learning methods for forecasting COVID-19 time-Series data: A Comparative study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Singh, Sarbjit & Parmar, Kulwinder Singh & Makkhan, Sidhu Jitendra Singh & Kaur, Jatinder & Peshoria, Shruti & Kumar, Jatinder, 2020. "Study of ARIMA and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in the most affected countries," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rasheed, Jawad & Jamil, Akhtar & Hameed, Alaa Ali & Aftab, Usman & Aftab, Javaria & Shah, Syed Attique & Draheim, Dirk, 2020. "A survey on artificial intelligence approaches in supporting frontline workers and decision makers for the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Masum, Mohammad & Masud, M.A. & Adnan, Muhaiminul Islam & Shahriar, Hossain & Kim, Sangil, 2022. "Comparative study of a mathematical epidemic model, statistical modeling, and deep learning for COVID-19 forecasting and management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Xiaojin Xie & Kangyang Luo & Zhixiang Yin & Guoqiang Wang, 2021. "Nonlinear Combinational Dynamic Transmission Rate Model and Its Application in Global COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction and Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Faizeh Hatami & Shi Chen & Rajib Paul & Jean-Claude Thill, 2022. "Simulating and Forecasting the COVID-19 Spread in a U.S. Metropolitan Region with a Spatial SEIR Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Iloanusi, Ogechukwu & Ross, Arun, 2021. "Leveraging weather data for forecasting cases-to-mortality rates due to COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Faik Bilgili & Emrah Koçak & Sevda Kuşkaya, 2023. "Dynamics and Co-movements Between the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Stock Market in Latin American Countries: An Evaluation Based on the Wavelet-Partial Wavelet Coherence Model," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(4), pages 630-652, August.
    7. Khan, Junaid Iqbal & Ullah, Farman & Lee, Sungchang, 2022. "Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    8. Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi & Vasconcelos, Gabriel & Zilberman, Eduardo, 2022. "Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 467-488.
    9. Zhao, Xinxing & Li, Kainan & Ang, Candice Ke En & Ho, Andrew Fu Wah & Liu, Nan & Ong, Marcus Eng Hock & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2022. "A deep learning architecture for forecasting daily emergency department visits with acuity levels," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    10. Christian Acal & Manuel Escabias & Ana M. Aguilera & Mariano J. Valderrama, 2021. "COVID-19 Data Imputation by Multiple Function-on-Function Principal Component Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Jiří Mazurek, 2021. "The evaluation of COVID-19 prediction precision with a Lyapunov-like exponent," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-9, May.
    12. Middya, Asif Iqbal & Roy, Sarbani, 2022. "Spatio-temporal variation of Covid-19 health outcomes in India using deep learning based models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Ahed Abugabah & Farah Shahid, 2023. "Intelligent Health Care and Diseases Management System: Multi-Day-Ahead Predictions of COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Juyoung Song & Dal-Lae Jin & Tae Min Song & Sang Ho Lee, 2023. "Exploring Future Signals of COVID-19 and Response to Information Diffusion Using Social Media Big Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-11, May.
    15. Kalantari, Mahdi, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic using optimal singular spectrum analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Harrou, Fouzi & Dairi, Abdelkader & Kadri, Farid & Sun, Ying, 2020. "Forecasting emergency department overcrowding: A deep learning framework," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Daren Zhao & Huiwu Zhang & Qing Cao & Zhiyi Wang & Sizhang He & Minghua Zhou & Ruihua Zhang, 2022. "The research of ARIMA, GM(1,1), and LSTM models for prediction of TB cases in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Yu-Chih Wei & Yan-Ling Ou & Jianqiang Li & Wei-Chen Wu, 2022. "Forecasting the Potential Number of Influenza-like Illness Cases by Fusing Internet Public Opinion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Huang, Chiou-Jye & Shen, Yamin & Kuo, Ping-Huan & Chen, Yung-Hsiang, 2022. "Novel spatiotemporal feature extraction parallel deep neural network for forecasting confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Farrukh Saleem & Abdullah Saad AL-Malaise AL-Ghamdi & Madini O. Alassafi & Saad Abdulla AlGhamdi, 2022. "Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Mathematical Models to Analyze Forecasting and Epidemiology of COVID-19: A Systematic Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-18, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:21:p:4001-:d:956239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.