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Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector

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  • Grace B. Villamor

    (Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute, Ltd.) Titokorangi Drive, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua 3046, New Zealand
    Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, 3 Genscherallee, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

  • Andrew Dunningham

    (Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute, Ltd.) Titokorangi Drive, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua 3046, New Zealand)

  • Philip Stahlmann-Brown

    (Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research, 17 Whitmore Street, Wellington 6011, New Zealand)

  • Peter W. Clinton

    (Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute, Ltd.) Titokorangi Drive, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua 3046, New Zealand)

Abstract

To provide the forest industry with a better understanding of alternatives to simulate future adaptation pathways under evolving climatic and socio-economic uncertainty, we review the literature on how adaptation decisions are modelled in the context of plantation forests. This review leads to the conclusion that the representation of adaptation behaviour and decision-making remain very limited in most of the agent-based models in the forestry sector. Moreover, theoretical frameworks used to understand the adaptation behaviour of forest owners are also lacking. In this paper, we propose the application of protection motivation theory (PMT) as a framework to understand the motivation of forest owners to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on their forest plantations. Furthermore, the use of PMT allows factors affecting the maladaptive behaviour of forest owners to be examined. A survey of New Zealand foresters showed that less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. This result highlights the importance of addressing the research question “what motivates forest owners to take risk reduction measures?” Exploring this question is crucial to the future success of the New Zealand forestry sector and we suggest that it can be addressed by using PMT. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for an agent-based model as an alternative to simulating adaptation pathways for forest plantations in New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace B. Villamor & Andrew Dunningham & Philip Stahlmann-Brown & Peter W. Clinton, 2022. "Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:3:p:364-:d:762457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Grace B. Villamor & Steve J. Wakelin & Andrew Dunningham & Peter W. Clinton, 2023. "Climate change adaptation behaviour of forest growers in New Zealand: an application of protection motivation theory," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Weilung Huang & Si Chen & Xiaomei Zhang & Xuemeng Zhao, 2022. "The Sustainable Development of Forest Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Thiam, Habibatou I. & Owusu, Victor & Villamor, Grace B. & Schuler, Johannes & Hathie, Ibrahima, 2024. "Farmers’ intention to adapt to soil salinity expansion in Fimela, Sine-Saloum area in Senegal: A structural equation modelling approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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