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Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Supachai Nakapan

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

  • Nitin Kumar Tripathi

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

  • Taravudh Tipdecho

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

  • Marc Souris

    (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 190, Marseille 13001, France)

Abstract

Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Supachai Nakapan & Nitin Kumar Tripathi & Taravudh Tipdecho & Marc Souris, 2012. "Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:9:y:2012:i:11:p:3824-3842:d:20932
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phaisarn Jeefoo & Nitin Kumar Tripathi & Marc Souris, 2010. "Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Curriero, F.C. & Patz, J.A. & Rose, J.B. & Lele, S., 2001. "The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 91(8), pages 1194-1199.
    3. Roger J. Marshall, 1991. "Mapping Disease and Mortality Rates Using Empirical Bayes Estimators," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 40(2), pages 283-294, June.
    4. Julia B Wenger & Elena N Naumova, 2010. "Seasonal Synchronization of Influenza in the United States Older Adult Population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, April.
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