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Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand

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  • Phaisarn Jeefoo

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

  • Nitin Kumar Tripathi

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

  • Marc Souris

    (Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
    Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Salaya, Nakhompathom 73170, Thailand
    Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 190, Marseille, France)

Abstract

In recent years, dengue has become a major international public health concern. In Thailand it is also an important concern as several dengue outbreaks were reported in last decade. This paper presents a GIS approach to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics. The major objective of this study was to examine spatial diffusion patterns and hotspot identification for reported dengue cases. Geospatial diffusion pattern of the 2007 dengue outbreak was investigated. Map of daily cases was generated for the 153 days of the outbreak. Epidemiological data from Chachoengsao province, Thailand (reported dengue cases for the years 1999–2007) was used for this study. To analyze the dynamic space-time pattern of dengue outbreaks, all cases were positioned in space at a village level. After a general statistical analysis (by gender and age group), data was subsequently analyzed for temporal patterns and correlation with climatic data (especially rainfall), spatial patterns and cluster analysis, and spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots during epidemics. The results revealed spatial diffusion patterns during the years 1999–2007 representing spatially clustered patterns with significant differences by village. Villages on the urban fringe reported higher incidences. The space and time of the cases showed outbreak movement and spread patterns that could be related to entomologic and epidemiologic factors. The hotspots showed the spatial trend of dengue diffusion. This study presents useful information related to the dengue outbreak patterns in space and time and may help public health departments to plan strategies to control the spread of disease. The methodology is general for space-time analysis and can be applied for other infectious diseases as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Phaisarn Jeefoo & Nitin Kumar Tripathi & Marc Souris, 2010. "Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:51-74:d:10760
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek A.T. Cummings & Rafael A. Irizarry & Norden E. Huang & Timothy P. Endy & Ananda Nisalak & Kumnuan Ungchusak & Donald S. Burke, 2004. "Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 344-347, January.
    2. Keating, Joseph, 2001. "An investigation into the cyclical incidence of dengue fever," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 1587-1597, December.
    3. R. Kelley Pace & James P. LeSage, 2004. "Spatial Statistics and Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 147-148, September.
    4. Roger J. Marshall, 1991. "Mapping Disease and Mortality Rates Using Empirical Bayes Estimators," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 40(2), pages 283-294, June.
    5. Yaw A. Twumasi & Edmund C. Merem, 2005. "GIS Applications in Land Management: The Loss of High Quality Land to Development in Central Mississippi from 1987-2002," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-11, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Supachai Nakapan & Nitin Kumar Tripathi & Taravudh Tipdecho & Marc Souris, 2012. "Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Yoon Ling Cheong & Katrin Burkart & Pedro J. Leitão & Tobia Lakes, 2013. "Assessing Weather Effects on Dengue Disease in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.

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