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Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Rojas-Díaz

    (Area of Fundamental Sciences, School of Applied Sciences and Engineering, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • María Eugenia Puerta-Yepes

    (Area of Fundamental Sciences, School of Applied Sciences and Engineering, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Daniel Medina-Gaspar

    (School of Finance, Economics, and Government, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jesús Alonso Botero

    (School of Finance, Economics, and Government, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia)

  • Anwar Rodríguez

    (Center for Economic Studies, National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF), Bogota 110231, Colombia)

  • Norberto Rojas

    (Center for Economic Studies, National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF), Bogota 110231, Colombia)

Abstract

The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Rojas-Díaz & María Eugenia Puerta-Yepes & Daniel Medina-Gaspar & Jesús Alonso Botero & Anwar Rodríguez & Norberto Rojas, 2023. "Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(18), pages 1-36, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:18:p:6740-:d:1237505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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