IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i23p15689-d984078.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fire Risk Assessments of Informal Settlements Based on Fire Risk Index and Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Hu

    (School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xuecai Xie

    (Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Xueming Shu

    (Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Shifei Shen

    (Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Xiaoyong Ni

    (School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Lei Zhang

    (Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

The specific risk assessment of informal settlements (IS) is important for the management of IS and protection of environmental safety and public health. In this paper, we introduced the different types of IS in China, and conducted the fire risk assessment on 26 burning buildings in these IS, providing a semi-quantitative and scenario fire risk perception of IS in China for the readers. Two methods, the risk index and the Bayesian network, are proposed and adopted for the fire risk assessment in IS. First, a risk index system with a total of 69 factors is used to assess the degree of fire risk of buildings in IS semi-quantitatively, and the result shows that fire equipment and fire safety management on IS are seriously lacking. Then, a Bayesian network of building fire risk with a total of 66 nodes was established to assess the fire risk from ignition to spread as well as the safety evacuation. Overall, the possibility of ignition is high, but due to the role of fire equipment and fire protection design, the possibilities of fire from ignition to spread is gradually reduced. Finally, we also put forward some feasible suggestions for occupants in IS, community organizations and emergency managers to reduce the fire risk from the aspects of fire equipment and fire safety management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Hu & Xuecai Xie & Xueming Shu & Shifei Shen & Xiaoyong Ni & Lei Zhang, 2022. "Fire Risk Assessments of Informal Settlements Based on Fire Risk Index and Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:15689-:d:984078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/15689/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/15689/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susanne M. Charlesworth & Debora C. Kligerman & Matthew Blackett & Frank Warwick, 2022. "The Potential to Address Disease Vectors in Favelas in Brazil Using Sustainable Drainage Systems: Zika, Drainage and Greywater Management," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Ernest H. Forman & Saul I. Gass, 2001. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process---An Exposition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 469-486, August.
    3. Martin J. Murray, 2009. "Fire and Ice: Unnatural Disasters and the Disposable Urban Poor in Post‐Apartheid Johannesburg," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 165-192, March.
    4. Matellini, D.B. & Wall, A.D. & Jenkinson, I.D. & Wang, J. & Pritchard, R., 2013. "Modelling dwelling fire development and occupancy escape using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 75-91.
    5. Chipo Mutyambizi & Tholang Mokhele & Catherine Ndinda & Charles Hongoro, 2020. "Access to and Satisfaction with Basic Services in Informal Settlements: Results from a Baseline Assessment Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xuecai Xie & Jun Hu & Gui Fu & Xueming Shu & Yali Wu & Lida Huang & Shifei Shen, 2023. "Investigation of Unsafe Acts Influence Law Based on System Dynamics Simulation: Thoughts on Behavior Mechanism and Safety Control," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Ying Zhang & Rumeng Tian & Lei Peng & Xiaoxia Yu & Yan Wang, 2023. "Fire Safety Resilience Assessment of Residential Self-Built Houses according to the TOPSIS Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas L. Saaty, 2013. "The Modern Science of Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Practical Applications: The AHP/ANP Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1101-1118, October.
    2. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Wangui Kimari, 2018. "Activists, care work, and the ‘cry of the ghetto’ in Nairobi, Kenya," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Débora Cynamon Kligerman & Telma Abdalla de Oliveira Cardoso & Simone Cynamon Cohen & Déborah Chein Bueno de Azevedo & Graziella de Araújo Toledo & Ana Paula Chein Bueno de Azevedo & Susanne M. Charle, 2022. "Methodology for a Comprehensive Health Impact Assessment in Water Supply and Sanitation Programmes for Brazil," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Sandra E. Strasser & Ceyhun Ozgur & David L. Schroeder, 2002. "Selecting a Business College Major: An Analysis of Criteria and Choice Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 47-56.
    6. Wenshuai Wu & Gang Kou, 2016. "A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Kellen J. Karimi & Aijaz Ahmad & Adriano Duse & Mutuku Mwanthi & Richard Ayah, 2022. "Prevalence of Antibiotic Use and Disposal at Household Level in Informal Settlements of Kisumu, Kenya," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Pei Li, 2016. "The New Product Online Evaluation by Expert Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process Method," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 265-265, August.
    9. Khameis Al Abdouli & Khalid Hussein & Dawit Ghebreyesus & Hatim O. Sharif, 2019. "Coastal Runoff in the United Arab Emirates—The Hazard and Opportunity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Joaquín Pérez, José L. Jimeno, Ethel Mokotoff, 2001. "Another potential strong shortcoming of AHP," Doctorado en Economía- documentos de trabajo 8/02, Programa de doctorado en Economía. Universidad de Alcalá., revised 01 Jun 2002.
    11. Tomasz Witold Trojanowski & Pawel Tadeusz Kazibudzki, 2021. "Prospects and Constraints of Sustainable Marketing Mix Development for Poland’s High-Energy Consumer Goods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-25, December.
    12. Zhichao Li, 2022. "Forecasting Weekly Dengue Cases by Integrating Google Earth Engine-Based Risk Predictor Generation and Google Colab-Based Deep Learning Modeling in Fortaleza and the Federal District, Brazil," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Koray Altintas & Ozalp Vayvay & Sinan Apak & Emine Cobanoglu, 2020. "An Extended GRA Method Integrated with Fuzzy AHP to Construct a Multidimensional Index for Ranking Overall Energy Sustainability Performances," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Shengyuan Liu & Fangbin Ye & Zhenzhi Lin & Jia Yang & Haigang Liu & Yinghe Lin & Haiwei Xie, 2019. "Comprehensive Quality Assessment Algorithm for Smart Meters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    15. Mansour Momeni & Behnaz Samimi & Mohammad Ali Afshari & Mohammad Hasan Maleki & Javad Mohammadi, 2011. "Selection Process of Supervisor for Doctoral Dissertation Using Analytical Network Process (ANP): An Iranian Study," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(2), pages 63-71, June.
    16. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Vivek Sharma & Sandeep Grover & S. K. Sharma, 2020. "An integrated AHP-GTA approach for measuring effectiveness of quality tools and techniques," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(1), pages 54-63, February.
    18. Zsuzsanna Katalin Szabo & Zsombor Szádoczki & Sándor Bozóki & Gabriela C. Stănciulescu & Dalma Szabo, 2021. "An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach for Prioritisation of Strategic Objectives of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, February.
    19. Xue Ding & Mengling Qin & Linsen Yin & Dayong Lv & Yao Bai, 2023. "Research on FinTech Talent Evaluation Index System and Recruitment Strategy: Evidence From Shanghai in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    20. Jifei Zhang & Shuai Zhang, 2022. "Assessing Integrated Effectiveness of Rural Socio-Economic Development and Environmental Protection of Wenchuan County in Southwestern China: An Approach Using Game Theory and VIKOR," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:15689-:d:984078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.