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Short-Term Effects of PM 10 , NO 2 , SO 2 and O 3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015

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  • Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo

    (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

  • Janine Wichmann

    (Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe

    (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

  • Nicole Probst-Hensch

    (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

  • Christian Schindler

    (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

  • Nino Künzli

    (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

Abstract

Background: The health effect of air pollution is rarely quantified in Africa, and this is evident in global systematic reviews and multi-city studies which only includes South Africa. Methods: A time-series analysis was conducted on daily mortality (cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD)) and air pollution from 2006–2015 for the city of Cape Town. We fitted single- and multi-pollutant models to test the independent effects of particulate matter (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) from co-pollutants. Results: daily average concentrations per interquartile range (IQR) increase of 16.4 µg/m 3 PM 10 , 10.7 µg/m 3 NO 2 , 6 µg/m 3 SO 2 and 15.6 µg/m 3 O 3 lag 0–1 were positively associated with CVD, with an increased risk of 2.4% (95% CI: 0.9–3.9%), 2.2 (95% CI: 0.4–4.1%), 1.4% (95% CI: 0–2.8%) and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.2–4.8%), respectively. For RD, only NO 2 showed a significant positive association with a 4.5% (95% CI: 1.4–7.6%) increase per IQR. In multi-pollutant models, associations of NO 2 with RD remained unchanged when adjusted for PM 10 and SO 2 but was weakened for O 3 . In CVD, O 3 estimates were insensitive to other pollutants showing an increased risk. Interestingly, CVD and RD lag structures of PM 10 , showed significant acute effect with evidence of mortality displacement. Conclusion: The findings suggest that air pollution is associated with mortality, and exposure to PM 10 advances the death of frail population.

Suggested Citation

  • Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo & Janine Wichmann & Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe & Nicole Probst-Hensch & Christian Schindler & Nino Künzli, 2022. "Short-Term Effects of PM 10 , NO 2 , SO 2 and O 3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:13:p:8078-:d:853434
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    2. Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe & Martin Röösli & Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo & Mohammed Aqiel Dalvie & Kees de Hoogh, 2021. "Spatial and Temporal Variations in PM 10 Concentrations between 2010–2017 in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-12, December.
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