IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i9p4484-d541971.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Tipping Effect of Delayed Interventions on the Evolution of COVID-19 Incidence

Author

Listed:
  • Kristoffer Rypdal

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT—The Arctic University of Norway, 9019 Tromsø, Norway)

Abstract

We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical (NPI) intervention response to disease incidence into one closed model consisting of two coupled delay differential equations for the incidence rate and the time-dependent reproduction number. The model contains three parameters, the initial reproduction number, the intervention strength, and the response delay. The response is modeled by assuming that the rate of change of the reproduction number is proportional to the negative deviation of the incidence rate from an intervention threshold. This delay dynamical system exhibits damped oscillations in one part of the parameter space, and growing oscillations in another, and these are separated by a surface where the solution is a strictly periodic nonlinear oscillation. For the COVID-19 pandemic, the tipping transition from damped to growing oscillations occurs for response delays of about one week, and suggests that, without vaccination, effective control and mitigation of successive epidemic waves cannot be achieved unless NPIs are implemented in a precautionary manner, rather as a response to the present incidence rate. Vaccination increases the quiet intervals between waves, but with delayed response, future flare-ups can only be prevented by establishing a post-pandemic normal with lower basic reproduction number.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristoffer Rypdal, 2021. "The Tipping Effect of Delayed Interventions on the Evolution of COVID-19 Incidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-12, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:9:p:4484-:d:541971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/9/4484/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/9/4484/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christie Aschwanden, 2021. "Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible," Nature, Nature, vol. 591(7851), pages 520-522, March.
    2. Kristoffer Rypdal & Filippo Maria Bianchi & Martin Rypdal, 2020. "Intervention Fatigue is the Primary Cause of Strong Secondary Waves in the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-17, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suellen Hopfer & Emilia J. Fields & Magdalen Ramirez & Sorina Neang Long & Heather C. Huszti & Adrijana Gombosev & Bernadette Boden-Albala & Dara H. Sorkin & Dan M. Cooper, 2022. "Adolescent COVID-19 Vaccine Decision-Making among Parents in Southern California," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Chung-Wei Kuo, 2021. "Can We Return to Our Normal Life When the Pandemic Is under Control? A Preliminary Study on the Influence of COVID-19 on the Tourism Characteristics of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Rastko Jovanović & Miloš Davidović & Ivan Lazović & Maja Jovanović & Milena Jovašević-Stojanović, 2021. "Modelling Voluntary General Population Vaccination Strategies during COVID-19 Outbreak: Influence of Disease Prevalence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Tom Chang & Mireille Jacobson & Manisha Shah & Rajiv Pramanik & Samir B. Shah, 2021. "Financial Incentives and Other Nudges Do Not Increase COVID-19 Vaccinations among the Vaccine Hesitant," NBER Working Papers 29403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dinu Vermeşan & Adrian Todor & Diana Andrei & Marius Niculescu & Emanuela Tudorache & Horia Haragus, 2021. "Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Orthopedic Surgery in Three Centers from Romania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-9, February.
    6. Ramy Shaaban & Ramy Mohamed Ghazy & Fawzia Elsherif & Nancy Ali & Youssef Yakoub & Maged Osama Aly & Rony ElMakhzangy & Marwa Shawky Abdou & Bonny McKinna & Amira Mohamed Elzorkany & Fatimah Abdullah , 2022. "COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance among Social Media Users: A Content Analysis, Multi-Continent Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Alexandru Topîrceanu, 2024. "A Spatial Agent-Based Model for Studying the Effect of Human Mobility Patterns on Epidemic Outbreaks in Urban Areas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Hong Lei & Aqu Alu & Jingyun Yang & Xi He & Cai He & Wenyan Ren & Zimin Chen & Weiqi Hong & Li Chen & Xuemei He & Li Yang & Jiong Li & Zhenling Wang & Wei Wang & Yuquan Wei & Shuaiyao Lu & Guangwen Lu, 2023. "Cationic crosslinked carbon dots-adjuvanted intranasal vaccine induces protective immunity against Omicron-included SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth & Eric Edlund & Avanti Mukherjee, 2023. "Analysis of Hybrid Epidemiological-Economic Models of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 585-612, October.
    10. Balisacan, Arsenio M. & dela Cruz, Russel Matthew M., 2021. "When a Pandemic Strikes: Balancing Health and Economy toward Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery," MPRA Paper 111259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nele Brusselaers & David Steadson & Kelly Bjorklund & Sofia Breland & Jens Stilhoff Sörensen & Andrew Ewing & Sigurd Bergmann & Gunnar Steineck, 2022. "Evaluation of science advice during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Per A. Andersson & Gustav Tinghög & Daniel Västfjäll, 2022. "The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    13. Thomas H. Lee & Bobby Do & Levi Dantzinger & Joshua Holmes & Monique Chyba & Steven Hankins & Edward Mersereau & Kenneth Hara & Victoria Y. Fan, 2022. "Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-14, May.
    14. Nazeem Muhajarine & Daniel A Adeyinka & Jessica McCutcheon & Kathryn L Green & Miles Fahlman & Natalie Kallio, 2021. "COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal and associated factors in an adult population in Saskatchewan, Canada: Evidence from predictive modelling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Shahjahan Bhuiyan, 2022. "COVID‐19 vaccine equity in doldrums: Good governance deficits," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 293-304, December.
    16. Mario Coccia, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1353-1367, December.
    17. Noelia Rodríguez-Blanco & Sergio Montero-Navarro & José M. Botella-Rico & Antonio J. Felipe-Gómez & Jesús Sánchez-Más & José Tuells, 2021. "Willingness to Be Vaccinated against COVID-19 in Spain before the Start of Vaccination: A Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Alexandru Topîrceanu, 2023. "On the Impact of Quarantine Policies and Recurrence Rate in Epidemic Spreading Using a Spatial Agent-Based Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, March.
    19. Candio, Paolo & Violato, Mara & Clarke, Philip M & Duch, Raymond & Roope, Laurence SJ, 2023. "Prevalence, predictors and reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: Results of a global online survey," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Lucia D. Willems & Vernandi Dyzel & Paula S. Sterkenburg, 2022. "COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions amongst Healthcare Workers: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-20, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:9:p:4484-:d:541971. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.