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Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas H. Lee

    (Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
    Hawaii Data Collaborative, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA)

  • Bobby Do

    (Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Levi Dantzinger

    (Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Joshua Holmes

    (Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Monique Chyba

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Steven Hankins

    (John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA)

  • Edward Mersereau

    (Behavioral Health Administration, Hawaii Department of Health, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA)

  • Kenneth Hara

    (Hawaii Department of Defense, Honolulu, HI 96816, USA)

  • Victoria Y. Fan

    (Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
    Center for Global Development, Washington, DC 20036, USA)

Abstract

In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas H. Lee & Bobby Do & Levi Dantzinger & Joshua Holmes & Monique Chyba & Steven Hankins & Edward Mersereau & Kenneth Hara & Victoria Y. Fan, 2022. "Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:10:p:6119-:d:818013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noureddine Ouerfelli & Narcisa Vrinceanu & Diana Coman & Adriana Lavinia Cioca, 2022. "Empirical Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution with High/Direct Impact on Public Health and Risk Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-13, March.
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    4. Kurubaran Ganasegeran & Mohd Fadzly Amar Jamil & Maheshwara Rao Appannan & Alan Swee Hock Ch’ng & Irene Looi & Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, 2022. "Spatial Dynamics and Multiscale Regression Modelling of Population Level Indicators for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Xue Zhang & Mildred E. Warner, 2020. "COVID-19 Policy Differences across US States: Shutdowns, Reopening, and Mask Mandates," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Kristoffer Rypdal & Filippo Maria Bianchi & Martin Rypdal, 2020. "Intervention Fatigue is the Primary Cause of Strong Secondary Waves in the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-17, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khoiron Khulud & Ilyas Masudin & Fien Zulfikarijah & Dian Palupi Restuputri & Abdul Haris, 2023. "Sustainable Supplier Selection through Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Approach: A Bibliometric Analysis," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Victoria Y. Fan & Craig T. Yamaguchi & Ketan Pal & Stephen M. Geib & Leocadia Conlon & Joshua R. Holmes & Yara Sutton & Amihan Aiona & Amy B. Curtis & Edward Mersereau, 2022. "Planning and Implementation of COVID-19 Isolation and Quarantine Facilities in Hawaii: A Public Health Case Report," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-10, July.

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