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The Impact of Health Policies and Sociodemographic Factors on Doubling Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico

Author

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  • Lina Díaz-Castro

    (Direction of Epidemiological and Psychosocial Research, National Institute of Psychiatry Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz, Mexico City 14370, Mexico)

  • Héctor Cabello-Rangel

    (Diagnostic Auxiliary Division, Psychiatric Hospital Fray Bernardino Álvarez, Mexico City 14000, Mexico)

  • Kurt Hoffman

    (Research Center in Animal Reproduction, Autonomous University of Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala 90000, Mexico)

Abstract

Background . The doubling time is the best indicator of the course of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the present investigation was to determine the impact of policies and several sociodemographic factors on the COVID-19 doubling time in Mexico. Methods . A retrospective longitudinal study was carried out across March–August, 2020. Policies issued by each of the 32 Mexican states during each week of this period were classified according to the University of Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases was calculated. Additionally, variables such as population size and density, poverty and mobility were included. A panel data model was applied to measure the effect of these variables on doubling time. Results . States with larger population sizes issued a larger number of policies. Delay in the issuance of policies was associated with accelerated propagation. The policy index (coefficient 0.60, p < 0.01) and the income per capita (coefficient 3.36, p < 0.01) had a positive effect on doubling time; by contrast, the population density (coefficient −0.012, p < 0.05), the mobility in parks (coefficient −1.10, p < 0.01) and the residential mobility (coefficient −4.14, p < 0.01) had a negative effect. Conclusions . Health policies had an effect on slowing the pandemic’s propagation, but population density and mobility played a fundamental role. Therefore, it is necessary to implement policies that consider these variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lina Díaz-Castro & Héctor Cabello-Rangel & Kurt Hoffman, 2021. "The Impact of Health Policies and Sociodemographic Factors on Doubling Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:5:p:2354-:d:507594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Jay & Jacob Bor & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Sarah K. Lipson & David K. Jones & Sandro Galea & Julia Raifman, 2020. "Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1294-1302, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Klumpp & Dominic Loske & Silvio Bicciato, 2022. "COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(8), pages 1263-1285, November.
    2. Smith, Julia & Davies, Sara E. & Grépin, Karen A. & Harman, Sophie & Herten-Crabb, Asha & Murage, Alice & Morgan, Rosemary & Wenham, Clare, 2022. "Reconceptualizing successful pandemic preparedness and response: A feminist perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    3. Gilgur, Alexander & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel, 2022. "Modeling mobility, risk, and pandemic severity during the first year of COVID," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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