IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i19p10253-d646194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Future Geographic Hotspots of Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations Using All Subset Model Selection and Repeated K-Fold Cross-Validation

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Tuson

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia
    School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia
    Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

  • Berwin Turlach

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

  • Kevin Murray

    (School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

  • Mei Ruu Kok

    (School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

  • Alistair Vickery

    (Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

  • David Whyatt

    (Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth 6009, Australia)

Abstract

Long-term future prediction of geographic areas with high rates of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPHs) among residents, or “hotspots”, is critical to ensure the effective location of place-based health service interventions. This is because such interventions are typically expensive and take time to develop, implement, and take effect, and hotspots often regress to the mean. Using spatially aggregated, longitudinal administrative health data, we introduce a method to make such predictions. The proposed method combines all subset model selection with a novel formulation of repeated k-fold cross-validation in developing optimal models. We illustrate its application predicting three-year future hotspots for four PPHs in an Australian context: type II diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and “high risk foot”. In these examples, optimal models are selected through maximising positive predictive value while maintaining sensitivity above a user-specified minimum threshold. We compare the model’s performance to that of two alternative methods commonly used in practice, i.e., prediction of future hotspots based on either: (i) current hotspots, or (ii) past persistent hotspots. In doing so, we demonstrate favourable performance of our method, including with respect to its ability to flexibly optimise various different metrics. Accordingly, we suggest that our method might effectively be used to assist health planners predict excess future demand of health services and prioritise placement of interventions. Furthermore, it could be used to predict future hotspots of non-health events, e.g., in criminology.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Tuson & Berwin Turlach & Kevin Murray & Mei Ruu Kok & Alistair Vickery & David Whyatt, 2021. "Predicting Future Geographic Hotspots of Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations Using All Subset Model Selection and Repeated K-Fold Cross-Validation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-21, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:19:p:10253-:d:646194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/19/10253/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/19/10253/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.
    2. Khan, Abdullah A., 1992. "An integrated approach to measuring potential spatial access to health care services," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 275-287, October.
    3. Kim, Ji-Hyun, 2009. "Estimating classification error rate: Repeated cross-validation, repeated hold-out and bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(11), pages 3735-3745, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tao Liu & Kewei Shi & Lingli Hu & Yuqing Liu & Yunyao Liu, 2023. "A New Instrument for Measuring Customers’ Perceptions of Service Warmth: A Big Data and Machine Learning Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kelly Burns & Imad Moosa, 2017. "Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4897-4910, October.
    2. Mariana Oliveira & Luís Torgo & Vítor Santos Costa, 2021. "Evaluation Procedures for Forecasting with Spatiotemporal Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    4. Antonio Abatemarco & Massimo Aria & Sergio Beraldo & Michela Collaro, 2023. "Measuring Access and Inequality of Access to Health Care: a Policy-Oriented Decomposition," CSEF Working Papers 666, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Pawlikowski, Maciej & Chorowska, Agata, 2020. "Weighted ensemble of statistical models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 93-97.
    6. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Kaltsounis, Anastasios & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Product sales probabilistic forecasting: An empirical evaluation using the M5 competition data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    7. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    9. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    11. Hone-Jay Chu & Bo-Cheng Lin & Ming-Run Yu & Ta-Chien Chan, 2016. "Minimizing Spatial Variability of Healthcare Spatial Accessibility—The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Mark G E White & Neil E Bezodis & Jonathon Neville & Huw Summers & Paul Rees, 2022. "Determining jumping performance from a single body-worn accelerometer using machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Bontempi, Gianluca & Ben Taieb, Souhaib, 2011. "Conditionally dependent strategies for multiple-step-ahead prediction in local learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 689-699, July.
    14. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660.
    15. Richard A. Johansen & Molly K. Reif & Christina L. Saltus & Kaytee L. Pokrzywinski, 2024. "A Broadscale Assessment of Sentinel-2 Imagery and the Google Earth Engine for the Nationwide Mapping of Chlorophyll a," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Liu, Congzheng & Zhu, Wenqi, 2024. "Newsvendor conditional value-at-risk minimisation: A feature-based approach under adaptive data selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 313(2), pages 548-564.
    17. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "On the update frequency of univariate forecasting models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 111-121.
    18. Trapero, Juan R. & Cardós, Manuel & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2019. "Empirical safety stock estimation based on kernel and GARCH models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 199-211.
    19. Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    20. Golab, Anna & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Pham, Thach Ngoc & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industry return predictability – Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 433-447.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:19:p:10253-:d:646194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.