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Analysis and Prediction of Vehicle Kilometers Traveled: A Case Study in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Paúl Narváez-Villa

    (University Institute for Automobile Research Francisco Aparicio Izquierdo (INSIA-UPM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28006 Madrid, Spain
    Transportation Engineering Research Group, Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, Cuenca 010105, Ecuador)

  • Blanca Arenas-Ramírez

    (University Institute for Automobile Research Francisco Aparicio Izquierdo (INSIA-UPM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28006 Madrid, Spain)

  • José Mira

    (Statistics Department, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales (ETSII-UPM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28006 Madrid, Spain)

  • Francisco Aparicio-Izquierdo

    (University Institute for Automobile Research Francisco Aparicio Izquierdo (INSIA-UPM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28006 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

Knowledge of the kilometers traveled by vehicles is essential in transport and road safety studies as an indicator of exposure and mobility. Its application in the determination of user risk indices in a disaggregated manner is of great interest to the scientific community and the authorities in charge of ensuring road safety on highways. This study used a sample of the data recorded during passenger vehicle inspections at Vehicle Technical Inspection stations and housed in a data warehouse managed by the General Directorate for Traffic of Spain. This study has three notable characteristics: (1) a novel data source is explored, (2) the methodology developed applies to other types of vehicles, with the level of disaggregation the data allows, and (3) pattern extraction and the estimate of mobility contribute to the continuous and necessary improvement of road safety indicators and are aligned with goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being: Target 3.6) of The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda. An Operational Data Warehouse was created from the sample received, which helped in obtaining inference values for the kilometers traveled by Spanish fleet vehicles with a level of disaggregation that, to the knowledge of the authors, was unreachable with advanced statistical models. Three machine learning methods, CART, random forest, and gradient boosting, were optimized and compared based on the performance metrics of the models. The three methods identified the age, engine size, and tare weight of passenger vehicles as the factors with greatest influence on their travel patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Paúl Narváez-Villa & Blanca Arenas-Ramírez & José Mira & Francisco Aparicio-Izquierdo, 2021. "Analysis and Prediction of Vehicle Kilometers Traveled: A Case Study in Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8327-:d:609543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Santolino & Luis Céspedes & Mercedes Ayuso, 2022. "The Impact of Aging Drivers and Vehicles on the Injury Severity of Crash Victims," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
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