IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i15p7841-d600533.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska

    (Department of Orthodontics, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, Powstańców Wielkopolskich Street 72, 70111 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz

    (Department of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases and Surveillance, National Institute of Public Health—National Institute of Hygiene, 00791 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Woźniak

    (Department of Orthodontics, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, Powstańców Wielkopolskich Street 72, 70111 Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally overwhelmed all sectors of life. The fast development of vaccines against COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the course of the pandemic. Methods: Global data from Google Trends was analyzed for vaccines against flu, BCG, HPV, pneumococcal disease, polio, and COVID-19. The time frame includes the last five-year period starting from 17 April 2016. Multiple training of time series models with back testing, including Holt–Winters forecasting, Exponential Smoothing State Space, Linear model with trend and seasonal components (tlsm), and ARIMA was conducted. Forecasting according to the best fitting model was performed. Results: Correlation analysis did not reveal a decrease in interest in vaccines during the analyzed period. The prediction models provided a short-term forecast of the dynamics of interest for flu, HPV, pneumococcal and polio vaccines with 5–10% growth in interest for the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of 2021. Conclusions: Despite the huge interest in the COVID-19 vaccine, there has not been a detectable decline in the overall interest in the five analyzed vaccines.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska & Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz & Krzysztof Woźniak, 2021. "The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:15:p:7841-:d:600533
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/15/7841/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/15/7841/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joana M. Barros & Ruth Melia & Kady Francis & John Bogue & Mary O’Sullivan & Karen Young & Rebecca A. Bernert & Dietrich Rebholz-Schuhmann & Jim Duggan, 2019. "The Validity of Google Trends Search Volumes for Behavioral Forecasting of National Suicide Rates in Ireland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska & Hanna Bielawska-Victorini & Agata Budzyńska & Krzysztof Woźniak, 2021. "The Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Interest in Orthodontic Treatment and Perspectives for the Future. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-9, May.
    3. Arora, Vishal S. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2019. "Google Trends: Opportunities and limitations in health and health policy research," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 338-341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Sycińska-Dziarnowska & Liliana Szyszka-Sommerfeld & Karolina Kłoda & Michele Simeone & Krzysztof Woźniak & Gianrico Spagnuolo, 2021. "Mental Health Interest and Its Prediction during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Zengwang Xu & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Effects of Social Vulnerability and Spatial Accessibility on COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage: A Census-Tract Level Study in Milwaukee County, USA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-13, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Tze Ping Pang & Assis Kamu & Chong Mun Ho & Walton Wider & Mathias Wen Leh Tseu, 2022. "An Analysis by State on The Effect of Movement Control Order (MCO) 3.0 Due to COVID-19 on Malaysians’ Mental Health: Evidence from Google Trends," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska & Hanna Bielawska-Victorini & Agata Budzyńska & Krzysztof Woźniak, 2021. "Reply to Livas, C.; Delli, K. Comment on “Sycinska-Dziarnowska et al. The Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Interest in Orthodontic Treatment and Perspectives for the Future. Real-Time Surv," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-2, December.
    3. Cebrián, Eduardo & Domenech, Josep, 2024. "Addressing Google Trends inconsistencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Artur Strzelecki, 2020. "Google Medical Update: Why Is the Search Engine Decreasing Visibility of Health and Medical Information Websites?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Christos Livas & Konstantina Delli, 2021. "Comment on Sycinska-Dziarnowska et al. The Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Interest in Orthodontic Treatment and Perspectives for the Future. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends. I," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-2, December.
    6. Gamze Bayın Donar & Seda Aydan, 2022. "Association of COVID‐19 with lifestyle behaviours and socio‐economic variables in Turkey: An analysis of Google Trends," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 281-300, January.
    7. Magdalena Sycińska-Dziarnowska & Liliana Szyszka-Sommerfeld & Krzysztof Woźniak & Steven J. Lindauer & Gianrico Spagnuolo, 2022. "Predicting Interest in Orthodontic Aligners: A Google Trends Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-10, March.
    8. Min Du & Chenyuan Qin & Wenxin Yan & Qiao Liu & Yaping Wang & Lin Zhu & Wannian Liang & Min Liu & Jue Liu, 2023. "Trends in Online Search Activity and the Correlation with Daily New Cases of Monkeypox among 102 Countries or Territories," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-13, February.
    9. Szalkowski, Gabriel Andy & Mikalef, Patrick, 2023. "Understanding digital platform evolution using compartmental models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Daniel E. O'Leary & Veda C. Storey, 2020. "A Google–Wikipedia–Twitter Model as a Leading Indicator of the Numbers of Coronavirus Deaths," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 151-158, July.
    11. Brannon, Tiffany N. & Marshall, Riley A., 2023. "Twin pandemics, intertwined (intergroup) solutions: Support for mitigating racism benefits vaccine hesitancy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    12. Hasan, Md. Tanvir, 2022. "The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 332-346.
    13. Martina Padovano & Mariarosaria Aromatario & Stefano D’Errico & Monica Concato & Federico Manetti & Maria Chiara David & Matteo Scopetti & Paola Frati & Vittorio Fineschi, 2022. "Sodium Nitrite Intoxication and Death: Summarizing Evidence to Facilitate Diagnosis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-16, October.
    14. Fu, Hongqiao & Cheng, Terence C. & Zhan, Jiajia & Xu, Duo & Yip, Winnie, 2024. "Dynamic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for telemedicine services: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 531-557.
    15. Lacitignola, Deborah & Saccomandi, Giuseppe, 2021. "Managing awareness can avoid hysteresis in disease spread: an application to coronavirus Covid-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Hasan Symum & Habsa Khandaker Hiya & Kh Mohammed Ali Sagor, 2021. "Monitoring COVID-19 Related Public Interest and Population Health Literacy in South Asia: An Internet Search-Interest Based Model," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(5), pages 128-138.
    17. Soo Beom Choi & Insung Ahn, 2020. "Forecasting seasonal influenza-like illness in South Korea after 2 and 30 weeks using Google Trends and influenza data from Argentina," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Rowalt Alibudbud, 2023. "Decreasing public interest in social psychiatry: An infodemiological study of worldwide Google search volumes from 2004 to 2021," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 69(1), pages 216-220, February.
    19. Özçelik, Ece A & Doucet, Cédric & Kang, Hyunjin & Levy, Noémie & Feldhaus, Isabelle & Hashiguchi, Tiago Cravo Oliveira & Lerouge, Aliénor & Cecchini, Michele, 2022. "A comparative assessment of action plans on antimicrobial resistance from OECD and G20 countries using natural language processing," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 522-533.
    20. Soo Beom Choi & Juhyeon Kim & Insung Ahn, 2019. "Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:15:p:7841-:d:600533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.