IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i12p6191-d570846.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Hugo Pedder

    (Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Bristol BS8 2PN, UK)

  • Thandi Kapwata

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa
    Environmental Health Department, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Guy Howard

    (School of Civil, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK)

  • Rajen N. Naidoo

    (Discipline of Occupational and Environmental Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa)

  • Zamantimande Kunene

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Richard W. Morris

    (Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Bristol BS8 2PN, UK)

  • Angela Mathee

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa
    Environmental Health Department, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa
    School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

  • Caradee Y. Wright

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0084, South Africa
    Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0084, South Africa)

Abstract

Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in South Africa. Climate change could potentially affect its incidence via changes in meteorological conditions. We investigated the delayed effects of temperature and relative humidity on pneumonia hospital admissions at two large public hospitals in Limpopo province, South Africa. Using 4062 pneumonia hospital admission records from 2007 to 2015, a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate temperature-lag and relative humidity-lag pneumonia relationships. Mean temperature, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range were all significantly associated with pneumonia admissions. Cumulatively across the 21-day period, higher mean daily temperature (30 °C relative to 21 °C) was most strongly associated with a decreased rate of hospital admissions (relative rate ratios (RR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14–0.82), whereas results were suggestive of lower mean daily temperature (12 °C relative to 21 °C) being associated with an increased rate of admissions (RR: 1.27, 95%CI: 0.75–2.16). Higher relative humidity (>80%) was associated with fewer hospital admissions while low relative humidity (<30%) was associated with increased admissions. A proportion of pneumonia admissions were attributable to changes in meteorological variables, and our results indicate that even small shifts in their distributions (e.g., due to climate change) could lead to substantial changes in their burden. These findings can inform a better understanding of the health implications of climate change and the burden of hospital admissions for pneumonia now and in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Pedder & Thandi Kapwata & Guy Howard & Rajen N. Naidoo & Zamantimande Kunene & Richard W. Morris & Angela Mathee & Caradee Y. Wright, 2021. "Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-16, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:12:p:6191-:d:570846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/12/6191/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/12/6191/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    2. Thandi Kapwata & Michael T. Gebreslasie & Angela Mathee & Caradee Yael Wright, 2018. "Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacqueline Lisa Bühler & Shreya Shrikhande & Thandi Kapwata & Guéladio Cissé & Yajun Liang & Hugo Pedder & Marek Kwiatkowski & Zamantimande Kunene & Angela Mathee & Nasheeta Peer & Caradee Y. Wright, 2022. "The Association between Apparent Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Disease in Limpopo Province, South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Malebo Sephule Makunyane & Hannes Rautenbach & Neville Sweijd & Joel Botai & Janine Wichmann, 2023. "Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Iara da Silva & Caroline Fernanda Hei Wikuats & Elizabeth Mie Hashimoto & Leila Droprinchinski Martins, 2022. "Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Kai Luo & Wenjing Li & Ruiming Zhang & Runkui Li & Qun Xu & Yang Cao, 2016. "Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Miller, Reid & Golab, Lukasz & Rosenberg, Catherine, 2017. "Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 534-546.
    7. Yunfei Cheng & Tatiana Ermolieva & Gui-Ying Cao & Xiaoying Zheng, 2018. "Health Impacts of Exposure to Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matter in Beijing—A Non-Linear Analysis Based on the New Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, September.
    8. Malebo Sephule Makunyane & Hannes Rautenbach & Neville Sweijd & Joel Botai & Janine Wichmann, 2023. "Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Lee, Won Sang & Sohn, So Young, 2018. "Effects of standardization on the evolution of information and communications technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 308-317.
    10. Bonnie R. Joubert & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou & Toccara Chamberlain & Hua Yun Chen & Chris Gennings & Mary E. Turyk & Marie Lynn Miranda & Thomas F. Webster & Katherine B. Ensor & David B. Dunson, 2022. "Powering Research through Innovative Methods for Mixtures in Epidemiology (PRIME) Program: Novel and Expanded Statistical Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Yao Xiao & Chengzhen Meng & Suli Huang & Yanran Duan & Gang Liu & Shuyuan Yu & Ji Peng & Jinquan Cheng & Ping Yin, 2021. "Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    12. Xerxes T. Seposo & Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Caradee Y. Wright & Angela Mathee & Cheryl Goldstone & Natasha Naidoo & Thandi Kapwata & Bianca Wernecke & Zamantimande Kunene & Danielle A. Millar, 2023. "Developing a Healthy Environment Assessment Tool (HEAT) to Address Heat-Health Vulnerability in South African Towns in a Warming World," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Mieczysław Szyszkowicz, 2022. "Concentration–Response Functions as an Essence of the Results from Lags," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-11, July.
    16. Lu Wang, 2023. "Mediating Effect of Heat Waves between Ecosystem Services and Heat-Related Mortality of Characteristic Populations: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Theophilus I. Emeto & Oyelola A. Adegboye & Reza A. Rumi & Mahboob-Ul I. Khan & Majeed Adegboye & Wasif A. Khan & Mahmudur Rahman & Peter K. Streatfield & Kazi M. Rahman, 2020. "Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Xuemei Su & Yibin Cheng & Yu Wang & Yue Liu & Na Li & Yonghong Li & Xiaoyuan Yao, 2019. "Regional Temperature-Sensitive Diseases and Attributable Fractions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo & Janine Wichmann & Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe & Nicole Probst-Hensch & Christian Schindler & Nino Künzli, 2022. "Short-Term Effects of PM 10 , NO 2 , SO 2 and O 3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Christofer Åström & Kristie L. Ebi & Joakim Langner & Bertil Forsberg, 2014. "Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:12:p:6191-:d:570846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.