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Relationship Between Traffic Volume and Accident Frequency at Intersections

Author

Listed:
  • Angus Eugene Retallack

    (Faculty of Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace Campus, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia)

  • Bertram Ostendorf

    (Faculty of Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace Campus, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia)

Abstract

Driven by the high social costs and emotional trauma that result from traffic accidents around the world, research into understanding the factors that influence accident occurrence is critical. There is a lack of consensus about how the management of congestion may affect traffic accidents. This paper aims to improve our understanding of this relationship by analysing accidents at 120 intersections in Adelaide, Australia. Data comprised of 1629 motor vehicle accidents with traffic volumes from a dataset of more than five million hourly measurements. The effect of rainfall was also examined. Results showed an approximately linear relationship between traffic volume and accident frequency at lower traffic volumes. In the highest traffic volumes, poisson and negative binomial models showed a significant quadratic explanatory term as accident frequency increases at a higher rate. This implies that focusing management efforts on avoiding these conditions would be most effective in reducing accident frequency. The relative risk of rainfall on accident frequency decreases with increasing congestion index. Accident risk is five times greater during rain at low congestion levels, successively decreasing to no elevated risk at the highest congestion level. No significant effect of congestion index on accident severity was detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus Eugene Retallack & Bertram Ostendorf, 2020. "Relationship Between Traffic Volume and Accident Frequency at Intersections," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:4:p:1393-:d:323575
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Eugene Retallack & Bertram Ostendorf, 2019. "Current Understanding of the Effects of Congestion on Traffic Accidents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M. & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Rizzi, Luis I., 2009. "Estimating the willingness to pay and value of risk reduction for car occupants in the road environment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 692-707, August.
    3. Derrick Hambly & Jean Andrey & Brian Mills & Chris Fletcher, 2013. "Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 613-629, February.
    4. Andrey, Jean, 2010. "Long-term trends in weather-related crash risks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 247-258.
    5. Jean Andrey & Brian Mills & Mike Leahy & Jeff Suggett, 2003. "Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 319-343, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Leich, Andreas & Nippold, Ronald & Schadschneider, Andreas & Wagner, Peter, 2024. "Physical models of traffic safety at crossing streams," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 640(C).
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    4. Quan Yuan & Xianguo Zhai & Wei Ji & Tiantong Yang & Yang Yu & Shengnan Yu, 2022. "Correlation Analysis on Accident Injury and Risky Behavior of Vulnerable Road Users Based on Bayesian General Ordinal Logit Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-11, December.

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