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Traffic Congestion and Safety: Mixed Effects on Total and Fatal Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Duc C. Phan

    (Road Solutions, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia)

  • Long T. Truong

    (Sustainable Urban and Rural Transport Research Group, School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3086, Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of traffic congestion on total crashes, fatal or serious injury (FSI) crashes, and fatal-only crashes in peak periods using a zone-level safety analysis in Greater Melbourne. Bayesian mixed-effect negative binomial models are employed to investigate the relationship between a congestion index and the frequency of total and FSI crashes. In addition, Bayesian mixed-effect binary logistic models are adopted to explore the association between the congestion index and the likelihood of having fatal crashes in Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) zones. Modelling results indicate that traffic congestion tends to increase total crashes in both the AM and PM peak periods and FSI crashes in the AM peak period. In contrast, traffic congestion tends to decrease the likelihood of having fatal crashes at both the AM and PM peaks. These findings suggest that many policies to reduce traffic congestion may also enhance road safety by lowering the overall number of crashes. However, it is crucial to incorporate careful speed management within these policies to reduce the risk of fatal crashes effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Duc C. Phan & Long T. Truong, 2024. "Traffic Congestion and Safety: Mixed Effects on Total and Fatal Crashes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:20:p:8911-:d:1498762
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Eugene Retallack & Bertram Ostendorf, 2019. "Current Understanding of the Effects of Congestion on Traffic Accidents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Albalate, Daniel & Fageda, Xavier, 2021. "On the relationship between congestion and road safety in cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 145-152.
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