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Long-term trends in weather-related crash risks

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  • Andrey, Jean

Abstract

This study explores whether automobile travel during inclement weather has become more or less risky over the past two decades. The analysis is based on the integration of two government databases and a matched-pair framework for comparing casualty rates under different weather conditions for 10 Canadian cities. The most notable result is a downward trend in relative risk during rainfall from 1984 to 2002 – both overall and when further disaggregated by injury severity combined with precipitation amount, city group, and time of day. By contrast, the overall relative risk of casualty during snowfall shows no significant change over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey, Jean, 2010. "Long-term trends in weather-related crash risks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 247-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:18:y:2010:i:2:p:247-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eisenberg, D. & Warner, K.E., 2005. "Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(1), pages 120-124.
    2. Jean Andrey & Brian Mills & Mike Leahy & Jeff Suggett, 2003. "Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 319-343, March.
    3. Datla, Sandeep & Sharma, Satish, 2008. "Impact of cold and snow on temporal and spatial variations of highway traffic volumes," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 358-372.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Claus Doll & Christian Trinks & Norbert Sedlacek & Verena Pelikan & Tina Comes & Frank Schultmann, 2014. "Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 63-85, May.
    4. Jonathan Davis & Diane S. Rohlman, 2021. "Winter Weather-Related Crashes during the Commute to Work: An Opportunity for Total Worker Health ®," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-10, September.
    5. Black, Alan W. & Mote, Thomas L., 2015. "Effects of winter precipitation on automobile collisions, injuries, and fatalities in the United States," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 165-175.
    6. Wu, Jingwen & Liao, Hua, 2020. "Weather, travel mode choice, and impacts on subway ridership in Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 264-279.
    7. Islam, Mazharul & Alharthi, Majed & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2018. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia," OSF Preprints 2p5aj, Center for Open Science.
    8. Derrick Hambly & Jean Andrey & Brian Mills & Chris Fletcher, 2013. "Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 613-629, February.
    9. Angus Eugene Retallack & Bertram Ostendorf, 2020. "Relationship Between Traffic Volume and Accident Frequency at Intersections," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, February.
    10. Sharaf AlKheder & Abdullah AlOmair, 2022. "Urban traffic prediction using metrological data with fuzzy logic, long short-term memory (LSTM), and decision trees (DTs)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1685-1719, March.
    11. Andrey, Jean & Hambly, Derrick & Mills, Brian & Afrin, Sadia, 2013. "Insights into driver adaptation to inclement weather in Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 192-203.
    12. Daniel Burow & Christopher Atkinson, 2019. "An examination of traffic volume during snow events in northeast Ohio," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1179-1189, November.
    13. Hyuk-Jae Roh, 2020. "Modelling chronic winter hazards as a function of precipitation and temperature," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1723-1745, November.

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