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What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

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Listed:
  • Chengfang Huang

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Ning Li

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Zhengtao Zhang

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yuan Liu

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xi Chen

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Fang Wang

    (The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Qiong Chen

    (Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China)

Abstract

Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China’s crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding −25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding −10% and −5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO 2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China’s crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengfang Huang & Ning Li & Zhengtao Zhang & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Fang Wang & Qiong Chen, 2020. "What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:24:p:9241-:d:459888
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jie LIU & Changyi LIU & Yan WEN, 2015. "Reassessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in China," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-14.
    2. Zunfu Lv & Yan Zhu & Xiaojun Liu & Hongbao Ye & Yongchao Tian & Feifei Li, 2018. "Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 523-537, April.
    3. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    4. Wang, Weiguang & Yu, Zhongbo & Zhang, Wei & Shao, Quanxi & Zhang, Yiwei & Luo, Yufeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Xu, Junzeng, 2014. "Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: Historical simulation and future projections," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 249-261.
    5. Sulin Tao & Shuanghe Shen & Yuhong Li & Qi Wang & Ping Gao & Isaac Mugume, 2016. "Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, February.
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