IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i6d10.1007_s10584-023-03556-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breeding priorities for rice adaptation to climate change in Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Dong

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tianyi Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Xiaoguang Yang

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Tao Li

    (DNDC Applications, Research and Training)

Abstract

Breeding is an important adaptation strategy to sustain rice production in China. However, the breeding priorities for ideal adaptation to future climate stress remain unknown. Here, we established 15 scenarios representing the high-median-low levels of chilling sensitivity, heat sensitivity, and maturity type attributes based on 140 existing rice varieties and assessed the performance of these scenarios for climate change adaptation in Northeast China. Results showed that the average yield of low-chilling-sensitivity varieties will decline by 10.8–47.5% in the 2100s, depending on SSPs. If the increase in warming is greater than 1.7 °C, low-heat-sensitivity varieties show higher yields than low-chilling-sensitivity ones, but the average yield will decline by 10.4–33.5% in the 2100s than that under baseline climate. Comparably, the contribution of varieties with an extended whole growth duration was at least 5 times greater than that of low-sensitivity varieties, resulting in a 50% yield increase relative to that at the baseline climate. Our study suggests that late-maturing varieties have considerable breeding potential relative to the varieties with low sensitivity to cold and heat stresses, and late maturity is thus recommended as the primary breeding target for adaptation to climate change in Northeast China.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Dong & Tianyi Zhang & Xiaoguang Yang & Tao Li, 2023. "Breeding priorities for rice adaptation to climate change in Northeast China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03556-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03556-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03556-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03556-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hui Ju & Marijn Velde & Erda Lin & Wei Xiong & Yingchun Li, 2013. "The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 313-324, September.
    2. Khondoker A. Mottaleb & Roderick M. Rejesus & MVR Murty & Samarendu Mohanty & Tao Li, 2017. "Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 879-901, August.
    3. Tabbal, D. F. & Bouman, B. A. M. & Bhuiyan, S. I. & Sibayan, E. B. & Sattar, M. A., 2002. "On-farm strategies for reducing water input in irrigated rice; case studies in the Philippines," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 93-112, July.
    4. Che-Chen Xu & Wen-Xiang Wu & Quan-Sheng Ge & Yang Zhou & Yu-Mei Lin & Ya-Mei Li, 2017. "Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-594, April.
    5. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    6. Citao Liu & Shujun Ou & Bigang Mao & Jiuyou Tang & Wei Wang & Hongru Wang & Shouyun Cao & Michael R. Schläppi & Bingran Zhao & Guoying Xiao & Xiping Wang & Chengcai Chu, 2018. "Early selection of bZIP73 facilitated adaptation of japonica rice to cold climates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Zunfu Lv & Yan Zhu & Xiaojun Liu & Hongbao Ye & Yongchao Tian & Feifei Li, 2018. "Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 523-537, April.
    8. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Zhuang, Qianlai & Luo, Yufeng, 2020. "Adaptation of paddy rice in China to climate change: The effects of shifting sowing date on yield and irrigation water requirement," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    2. Zhang, Yang & Zhang, Yan & Gao, Yan & McLaughlin, Neil B. & Huang, Dandan & Wang, Yang & Chen, Xuewen & Zhang, Shixiu & Liang, Aizhen, 2024. "Effects of tillage practices on environment, energy, and economy of maize production in Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Manel Ben Hassen & Federica Monaco & Arianna Facchi & Marco Romani & Giampiero Valè & Guido Sali, 2017. "Economic Performance of Traditional and Modern Rice Varieties under Different Water Management Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, February.
    4. Senthilkumar, K. & Bindraban, P.S. & Thiyagarajan, T.M. & de Ridder, N. & Giller, K.E., 2008. "Modified rice cultivation in Tamil Nadu, India: Yield gains and farmers' (lack of) acceptance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 82-94, September.
    5. Stefano Pinardi & Matteo Salis & Gabriele Sartor & Rosa Meo, 2023. "EU−Africa: Digital and Social Questions in a Multicultural Agroecological Transition for the Cocoa Production in Africa," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-29, July.
    6. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    7. Choudhury, B.U. & Singh, Anil Kumar & Pradhan, S., 2013. "Estimation of crop coefficients of dry-seeded irrigated rice–wheat rotation on raised beds by field water balance method in the Indo-Gangetic plains, India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 20-31.
    8. Kaiwen Chen & Shuang’en Yu & Tao Ma & Jihui Ding & Pingru He & Yao Li & Yan Dai & Guangquan Zeng, 2022. "Modeling the Water and Nitrogen Management Practices in Paddy Fields with HYDRUS-1D," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Liang, Kaiming & Zhong, Xuhua & Huang, Nongrong & Lampayan, Rubenito M. & Pan, Junfeng & Tian, Ka & Liu, Yanzhuo, 2016. "Grain yield, water productivity and CH4 emission of irrigated rice in response to water management in south China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 319-331.
    10. Wang, Yuhan & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Wildfires and climate change have lowered the economic value of western U.S. forests by altering risk expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    12. Na Li & Tangzhe Nie & Yi Tang & Dehao Lu & Tianyi Wang & Zhongxue Zhang & Peng Chen & Tiecheng Li & Linghui Meng & Yang Jiao & Kaiwen Cheng, 2022. "Responses of Soybean Water Supply and Requirement to Future Climate Conditions in Heilongjiang Province," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Khodran Alzahrani & Mubashar Ali & Muhammad Imran Azeem & Bader Alhafi Alotaibi, 2023. "Efficacy of Public Extension and Advisory Services for Sustainable Rice Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.
    14. Wencun Zhou & Zhengjia Liu & Sisi Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-28, September.
    15. Fei Gao & Yi Luo & Congju Zhao, 2023. "Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Water Provision Services in the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Zhang, Qingsong & Sun, Jiahao & Zhang, Guangxin & Liu, Xuemei & Wu, Yanfeng & Sun, Jingxuan & Hu, Boting, 2023. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of water supply–demand patterns under large-scale paddy expansion: Implications for regional sustainable water resource management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Vaiknoras, Kate & Larochelle, Catherine & Alwang, Jeffrey, 2020. "IFAD RESERACH SERIES 64 - How the adoption of drought-tolerant rice varieties impacts households in a non-drought year: Evidence from Nepal," IFAD Research Series 308809, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    18. Katie Devenish & Sébastien Desbureaux & Simon Willcock & Julia P. G. Jones, 2022. "On track to achieve no net loss of forest at Madagascar’s biggest mine," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 498-508, June.
    19. Edmond Totin & Alcade C. Segnon & Marc Schut & Hippolyte Affognon & Robert B. Zougmoré & Todd Rosenstock & Philip K. Thornton, 2018. "Institutional Perspectives of Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Bouman, B.A.M. & Peng, S. & Castaneda, A.R. & Visperas, R.M., 2005. "Yield and water use of irrigated tropical aerobic rice systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 87-105, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03556-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.