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Reassessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jie LIU

    (Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liangxiang College Park, Fangshan Dist., Beijing 102488, China)

  • Changyi LIU

    (National Climate Center, Zhongguancun Nandajie 46, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Yan WEN

    (National Climate Center, Zhongguancun Nandajie 46, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

Nonlinearity and adaptation effect are rarely taken into consideration in the existing literature of empirical studies on climate change impacts, which may lead to bias estimation of the impacts on agricultural production. This paper aims to reassess the impacts on crop yields (rice, wheat, and maize) by incorporating the terms of nonlinearity and adaptation into a provincial panel data model and further study the impacts of future climate change under the represented concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results reveal that the historical warming temperature benefits rice but harm wheat and maize productions, and decreasing precipitation benefits rice and maize but harm wheat production. Adaptation can significantly mitigate the negative impacts. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0, after adaptation, the yield changes attributed to future climate change vary from 0.66% to 0.98% for rice, -0.65% to -0.84% for wheat, and -0.24 to 0.08% for maize. The shifts of means of climatic variables impose no challenge on national food security of China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie LIU & Changyi LIU & Yan WEN, 2015. "Reassessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in China," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:cjuesx:v:03:y:2015:i:02:n:s2345748115500116
    DOI: 10.1142/S2345748115500116
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    Cited by:

    1. Chengfang Huang & Ning Li & Zhengtao Zhang & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Fang Wang & Qiong Chen, 2020. "What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-12, December.

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