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Impact of Hospital Bed Shortages on the Containment of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Author

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  • Weike Zhou

    (School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China)

  • Aili Wang

    (School of Mathematics and Information Science, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China)

  • Xia Wang

    (School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China)

  • Robert A. Cheke

    (Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB, UK)

  • Yanni Xiao

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Sanyi Tang

    (School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China)

Abstract

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has caused worrying concern amongst the public and health authorities. The first and foremost problem that many countries face during the outbreak is a shortage of medical resources. In order to investigate the impact of a shortage of hospital beds on the COVID-19 outbreak, we formulated a piecewise smooth model for describing the limitation of hospital beds. We parameterized the model while using data on the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths in Wuhan city from 10 January to 12 April 2020. The results showed that, even with strong prevention and control measures in Wuhan, slowing down the supply rate, reducing the maximum capacity, and delaying the supply time of hospital beds all aggravated the outbreak severity by magnifying the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, lengthening the end time of the pandemic, enlarging the value of the effective reproduction number during the outbreak, and postponing the time when the threshold value was reduced to 1. Our results demonstrated that establishment of the Huoshenshan, Leishenshan, and Fangcang shelter hospitals avoided 22,786 people from being infected and saved 6524 lives. Furthermore, the intervention of supplying hospital beds avoided infections in 362,360 people and saved the lives of 274,591 persons. This confirmed that the quick establishment of the Huoshenshan, Leishenshan Hospitals, and Fangcang shelter hospitals, and the designation of other hospitals for COVID-19 patients played important roles in containing the outbreak in Wuhan.

Suggested Citation

  • Weike Zhou & Aili Wang & Xia Wang & Robert A. Cheke & Yanni Xiao & Sanyi Tang, 2020. "Impact of Hospital Bed Shortages on the Containment of COVID-19 in Wuhan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:22:p:8560-:d:447147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peng Zhou & Xing-Lou Yang & Xian-Guang Wang & Ben Hu & Lei Zhang & Wei Zhang & Hao-Rui Si & Yan Zhu & Bei Li & Chao-Lin Huang & Hui-Dong Chen & Jing Chen & Yun Luo & Hua Guo & Ren-Di Jiang & Mei-Qin L, 2020. "Addendum: A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7836), pages 6-6, December.
    2. Peng Zhou & Xing-Lou Yang & Xian-Guang Wang & Ben Hu & Lei Zhang & Wei Zhang & Hao-Rui Si & Yan Zhu & Bei Li & Chao-Lin Huang & Hui-Dong Chen & Jing Chen & Yun Luo & Hua Guo & Ren-Di Jiang & Mei-Qin L, 2020. "A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin," Nature, Nature, vol. 579(7798), pages 270-273, March.
    3. Colin J. Worby & Hsiao-Han Chang, 2020. "Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reza Maleki & Mohammadreza Taghizadeh-Yazdi & Rohollah Ghasemi & Samar Rivandi, 2024. "A Hybrid Mathematical-Simulation Approach to Hospital Beds Capacity Optimization for COVID-19 Pandemic Conditions," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-33, December.
    2. Costase Ndayishimiye & Christoph Sowada & Patrycja Dyjach & Agnieszka Stasiak & John Middleton & Henrique Lopes & Katarzyna Dubas-Jakóbczyk, 2022. "Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning—A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.

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