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A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia A. Sánchez

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Hongying Li

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Kendra L. Phelps

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio

    (George Mason University)

  • Lin-Fa Wang

    (Duke-NUS Medical School)

  • Peng Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zheng-Li Shi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Kevin J. Olival

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Peter Daszak

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

Abstract

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia A. Sánchez & Hongying Li & Kendra L. Phelps & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Lin-Fa Wang & Peng Zhou & Zheng-Li Shi & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2022. "A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31860-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w
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