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The Impacts of Climatic Factors and Vegetation on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission in China: A Study of 109 Counties

Author

Listed:
  • Junyu He

    (Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China
    These authors contributed equally to the research.)

  • Yong Wang

    (Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China
    These authors contributed equally to the research.)

  • Di Mu

    (Division of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
    These authors contributed equally to the research.)

  • Zhiwei Xu

    (School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland 4059, Australia)

  • Quan Qian

    (Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China)

  • Gongbo Chen

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

  • Liang Wen

    (Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China)

  • Wenwu Yin

    (Division of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Shanshan Li

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

  • Wenyi Zhang

    (Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China)

  • Yuming Guo

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses. About 90% of global cases were reported in China. We collected monthly data on counts of HFRS cases, climatic factors (mean temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity), and vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) in 109 Chinese counties from January 2002 to December 2013. First, we used a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the impacts of these four factors on HFRS in 109 counties, separately. Then we conducted a multivariate meta-analysis to pool the results at the national level. The results of our study showed that there were non-linear associations between the four factors and HFRS. Specifically, the highest risks of HFRS occurred at the 45th, 30th, 20th, and 80th percentiles (with mean and standard deviations of 10.58 ± 4.52 °C, 18.81 ± 17.82 mm, 58.61 ± 6.33%, 198.20 ± 22.23 at the 109 counties, respectively) of mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and NDVI, respectively. HFRS case estimates were most sensitive to mean temperature amongst the four factors, and the lag patterns of the impacts of these factors on HFRS were heterogeneous. Our findings provide rigorous scientific support to current HFRS monitoring and the development of early warning systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Junyu He & Yong Wang & Di Mu & Zhiwei Xu & Quan Qian & Gongbo Chen & Liang Wen & Wenwu Yin & Shanshan Li & Wenyi Zhang & Yuming Guo, 2019. "The Impacts of Climatic Factors and Vegetation on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission in China: A Study of 109 Counties," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:18:p:3434-:d:267649
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    2. Junyu He & George Christakos & Jiaping Wu & Bernard Cazelles & Quan Qian & Di Mu & Yong Wang & Wenwu Yin & Wenyi Zhang, 2018. "Spatiotemporal variation of the association between climate dynamics and HFRS outbreaks in Eastern China during 2005-2016 and its geographic determinants," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shujuan Li & Lingli Zhu & Lidan Zhang & Guoyan Zhang & Hongyan Ren & Liang Lu, 2023. "Urbanization-Related Environmental Factors and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: A Review Based on Studies Taken in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.

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