IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v13y2016i5p454-d69154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Chisato Imai

    (School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Avenue, Brisbane QLD 4064, Australia
    Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan)

  • Adrian G. Barnett

    (School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Avenue, Brisbane QLD 4064, Australia)

  • Masahiro Hashizume

    (Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan)

  • Yasushi Honda

    (Faculty of Health and Sport Science, The University of Tsukuba, Comprehensive Research Building D, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba 305-8577, Japan)

Abstract

Many studies have found that cardiovascular deaths mostly occur within a few days of exposure to heat, whereas cold-related deaths can occur up to 30 days after exposure. We investigated whether influenza infection could explain the delayed cold effects on ischemic heart diseases (IHD) as they can trigger IHD. We hypothesized two pathways between cold exposure and IHD: a direct pathway and an indirect pathway through influenza infection. We created a multi-state model of the pathways and simulated incidence data to examine the observed delayed patterns in cases. We conducted cross-correlation and time series analysis with Japanese daily pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality data to help validate our model. Simulations showed the IHD incidence through the direct pathway occurred mostly within 10 days, while IHD through influenza infection peaked at 4–6 days, followed by delayed incidences of up to 20–30 days. In the mortality data from Japan, P&I lagged IHD in cross-correlations. Time series analysis showed strong delayed cold effects in the older population. There was also a strong delay on intense days of influenza which was more noticeable in the older population. Influenza can therefore be a plausible explanation for the delayed association between cold exposure and cardiovascular mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Chisato Imai & Adrian G. Barnett & Masahiro Hashizume & Yasushi Honda, 2016. "The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:5:p:454-:d:69154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/5/454/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/5/454/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    2. Jixia Huang & Jinfeng Wang & Weiwei Yu, 2014. "The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Iara da Silva & Caroline Fernanda Hei Wikuats & Elizabeth Mie Hashimoto & Leila Droprinchinski Martins, 2022. "Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Kai Luo & Wenjing Li & Ruiming Zhang & Runkui Li & Qun Xu & Yang Cao, 2016. "Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Miller, Reid & Golab, Lukasz & Rosenberg, Catherine, 2017. "Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 534-546.
    7. Yunfei Cheng & Tatiana Ermolieva & Gui-Ying Cao & Xiaoying Zheng, 2018. "Health Impacts of Exposure to Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matter in Beijing—A Non-Linear Analysis Based on the New Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, September.
    8. Malebo Sephule Makunyane & Hannes Rautenbach & Neville Sweijd & Joel Botai & Janine Wichmann, 2023. "Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Lee, Won Sang & Sohn, So Young, 2018. "Effects of standardization on the evolution of information and communications technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 308-317.
    10. Bonnie R. Joubert & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou & Toccara Chamberlain & Hua Yun Chen & Chris Gennings & Mary E. Turyk & Marie Lynn Miranda & Thomas F. Webster & Katherine B. Ensor & David B. Dunson, 2022. "Powering Research through Innovative Methods for Mixtures in Epidemiology (PRIME) Program: Novel and Expanded Statistical Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Yao Xiao & Chengzhen Meng & Suli Huang & Yanran Duan & Gang Liu & Shuyuan Yu & Ji Peng & Jinquan Cheng & Ping Yin, 2021. "Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    12. Xerxes T. Seposo & Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Mieczysław Szyszkowicz, 2022. "Concentration–Response Functions as an Essence of the Results from Lags," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-11, July.
    15. Lu Wang, 2023. "Mediating Effect of Heat Waves between Ecosystem Services and Heat-Related Mortality of Characteristic Populations: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, February.
    16. Theophilus I. Emeto & Oyelola A. Adegboye & Reza A. Rumi & Mahboob-Ul I. Khan & Majeed Adegboye & Wasif A. Khan & Mahmudur Rahman & Peter K. Streatfield & Kazi M. Rahman, 2020. "Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Xuemei Su & Yibin Cheng & Yu Wang & Yue Liu & Na Li & Yonghong Li & Xiaoyuan Yao, 2019. "Regional Temperature-Sensitive Diseases and Attributable Fractions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo & Janine Wichmann & Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe & Nicole Probst-Hensch & Christian Schindler & Nino Künzli, 2022. "Short-Term Effects of PM 10 , NO 2 , SO 2 and O 3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Christofer Åström & Kristie L. Ebi & Joakim Langner & Bertil Forsberg, 2014. "Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Yannan Li & Blesson Mathew Varghese & Jingwen Liu & Peng Bi & Michael Tong, 2023. "Association between High Ambient Temperatures and Road Crashes in an Australian City with Temperate Climate: A Time-Series Study, 2012–2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(11), pages 1-13, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:5:p:454-:d:69154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.