IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v11y2014i5p4799-4824d35779.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China

Author

Listed:
  • Yanxia Wang

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Qingyun Du

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Fu Ren

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Shi Liang

    (Shenzhen Center for Health Information, Renmin Road North 2210, Luohu District, Shenzhen 518001, China)

  • De-nan Lin

    (Shenzhen Center for Health Information, Renmin Road North 2210, Luohu District, Shenzhen 518001, China)

  • Qin Tian

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Yan Chen

    (Shenzhen Center for Health Information, Renmin Road North 2210, Luohu District, Shenzhen 518001, China)

  • Jia-jia Li

    (Shenzhen Center for Health Information, Renmin Road North 2210, Luohu District, Shenzhen 518001, China)

Abstract

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents) and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases) of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015) to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction using the GM (1,1). In addition, the combined analysis of the prediction of IHD hospital admissions and the general hospital distributions shows that Pingshan and Longgang might experience the most serious burden of IHD hospital services in the near future, although Futian would still have the greatest number and the highest incidence rate of hospital admissions for IHD.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanxia Wang & Qingyun Du & Fu Ren & Shi Liang & De-nan Lin & Qin Tian & Yan Chen & Jia-jia Li, 2014. "Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:5:p:4799-4824:d:35779
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/5/4799/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/5/4799/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ratchaphon Samphutthanon & Nitin Kumar Tripathi & Sarawut Ninsawat & Raphael Duboz, 2013. "Spatio-Temporal Distribution and Hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Northern Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Zhensheng Wang & Qingyun Du & Shi Liang & Ke Nie & De-nan Lin & Yan Chen & Jia-jia Li, 2014. "Analysis of the Spatial Variation of Hospitalization Admissions for Hypertension Disease in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Wong, J.B. & McQuillan, G.M. & McHutchison, J.G. & Poynard, T., 2000. "Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(10), pages 1562-1569.
    4. Tahsin Yomralioglu & Ebru H. Colak & Arif C. Aydinoglu, 2009. "Geo-Relationship between Cancer Cases and the Environment by GIS: A Case Study of Trabzon in Turkey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Rubalcava, L.N. & Teruel, G.M. & Thomas, D. & Goldman, N., 2008. "The healthy migrant effect: New findings from the Mexican Family Life Survey," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(1), pages 78-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jinli Duan & Feng Jiao & Qishan Zhang & Zhibin Lin, 2017. "Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Chengzhen Bao & Mamat Mayila & Zhenhua Ye & Jianbing Wang & Mingjuan Jin & Wenjiong He & Kun Chen, 2015. "Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Qingyun Du & Mingxiao Zhang & Yayan Li & Hui Luan & Shi Liang & Fu Ren, 2016. "Spatial Patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease in Shenzhen, China: A Bayesian Multi-Disease Modelling Approach to Inform Health Planning Policies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Yuliang Xi & Fu Ren & Shi Liang & Jinghua Zhang & De-Nan Lin, 2014. "Spatial Analysis of the Distribution, Risk Factors and Access to Medical Resources of Patients with Hepatitis B in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Riosmena & Douglas S. Massey, 2012. "Pathways to El Norte: Origins, Destinations, and Characteristics of Mexican Migrants to the United States," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 3-36, March.
    2. Susie El Saadany & Douglas Coyle & Antonio Giulivi & Mohammad Afzal, 2005. "Economic burden of hepatitis C in Canada and the potential impact of prevention," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(2), pages 159-165, June.
    3. John Gibson & Steven Stillman & David McKenzie & Halahingano Rohorua, 2013. "Natural Experiment Evidence On The Effect Of Migration On Blood Pressure And Hypertension," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 655-672, June.
    4. Ilyana Kuziemko & Katherine Meckel & Maya Rossin-Slater, 2013. "Do Insurers Risk-Select Against Each Other? Evidence from Medicaid and Implications for Health Reform," NBER Working Papers 19198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mathieu Ichou & Matthew Wallace, 2019. "The Healthy Immigrant Effect: The role of educational selectivity in the good health of migrants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(4), pages 61-94.
    6. Casey T. Harris & Michael Nino & Zhe (Meredith) Zhang & Mia Robert, 2023. "Justice System Contact and Health: Do Immigrants Fair Better or Worse than the Native-Born after Arrest, Probation, or Incarceration?," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Joan Hamory & Marieke Kleemans & Nicholas Y Li & Edward Miguel, 2021. "Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1522-1555.
    8. Juliane Scheffel & Yiwei Zhang, 2019. "How does internal migration affect the emotional health of elderly parents left-behind?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 953-980, July.
    9. Ljunge, Martin, 2016. "Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 35-46.
    10. Robert L. Herrick & Steven G. Buchberger & Robert M. Clark & Margaret Kupferle & Regan Murray & Paul Succop, 2012. "A Markov Model To Estimate Salmonella Morbidity, Mortality, Illness Duration, And Cost," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1169-1182, October.
    11. Van Hook, Jennifer & Baker, Elizabeth & Altman, Claire E. & Frisco, Michelle L., 2012. "Canaries in a coalmine: Immigration and overweight among Mexican-origin children in the US and Mexico," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 125-134.
    12. Tunstall, Helena & Mitchell, Richard & Pearce, Jamie & Shortt, Niamh, 2014. "The general and mental health of movers to more- and less-disadvantaged socio-economic and physical environments within the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 97-107.
    13. Martin Zalesak & Kevin Francis & Alex Gedeon & John Gillis & Kyle Hvidsten & Phyllis Kidder & Hong Li & Derek Martyn & Leslie Orne & Amanda Smith & Ann Kwong, 2013. "Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, May.
    14. Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez & Alberto Palloni & Fernando Riosmena & Rebeca Wong, 2016. "SES Gradients Among Mexicans in the United States and in Mexico: A New Twist to the Hispanic Paradox?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1555-1581, October.
    15. Fernando Riosmena & Randall Kuhn & Warren C. Jochem, 2017. "Explaining the Immigrant Health Advantage: Self-selection and Protection in Health-Related Factors Among Five Major National-Origin Immigrant Groups in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 175-200, February.
    16. Budy Resosudarmo & Daniel Suryadarma, 2011. "The Effect of Childhood Migration on Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Rural-Urban Migrants in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2011-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    17. Creighton, Mathew J. & Goldman, Noreen & Pebley, Anne R. & Chung, Chang Y., 2012. "Durational and generational differences in Mexican immigrant obesity: Is acculturation the explanation?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 300-310.
    18. Buttenheim, Alison M. & Pebley, Anne R. & Hsih, Katie & Chung, Chang Y. & Goldman, Noreen, 2013. "The shape of things to come? Obesity prevalence among foreign-born vs. US-born Mexican youth in California," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-8.
    19. Manchin, Miriam & Orazbayev, Sultan, 2018. "Social networks and the intention to migrate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-374.
    20. Cuihong Long & Jiajun Han & Yong Liu, 2020. "Has Rural-Urban Migration Promoted the Health of Chinese Migrant Workers?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:5:p:4799-4824:d:35779. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.