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Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States

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  • Wong, J.B.
  • McQuillan, G.M.
  • McHutchison, J.G.
  • Poynard, T.

Abstract

Obectives: This Study esttmated future morbidity, mortality, and costs resulting from hepatitis C virus (HCV). Methods: We used a computer cohort simulation of the natural history of HCV/n the US population. Results: From the year 2010 through 2019, our model projected 165 900 deaths from chronic liver disease, 27 200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma, and $10.7 billion in direct medical expenditures for HCV. Drug this period, HCV may lead to 720 700 years of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and to the loss of 1.83 million years of life in those younger than 65 at a societal cost of $21.3 and $54:2 billion, respectively, sensitivity analysis, these estimates depended on (1) whether patients with HCV and normal transaminase levels develop progressive liver disease, (2) the extent of alcohol ingestion, and (3) the likelihood of dying from other causes related to the rotate of HCV acquisition. Conclusions: Our results confirm prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections and suggest that HCV may lead to a substantial health and economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, J.B. & McQuillan, G.M. & McHutchison, J.G. & Poynard, T., 2000. "Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(10), pages 1562-1569.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2000:90:10:1562-1569_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert L. Herrick & Steven G. Buchberger & Robert M. Clark & Margaret Kupferle & Regan Murray & Paul Succop, 2012. "A Markov Model To Estimate Salmonella Morbidity, Mortality, Illness Duration, And Cost," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1169-1182, October.
    2. Anita J Brogan & Sandra E Talbird & James R Thompson & Jeffrey D Miller & Jaime Rubin & Baris Deniz, 2014. "Cost-effectiveness of Telaprevir Combination Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Uwe Siebert, 2003. "When should decision-analytic modeling be used in the economic evaluation of health care?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 4(3), pages 143-150, September.
    4. Susie El Saadany & Douglas Coyle & Antonio Giulivi & Mohammad Afzal, 2005. "Economic burden of hepatitis C in Canada and the potential impact of prevention," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(2), pages 159-165, June.
    5. Craig Arthur Gallet, 2017. "The Impact of Public Health Spending on California STD Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 149-159, May.
    6. Teresa Kauf & Ateesha Mohamed & A. Hauber & Derek Fetzer & Atiya Ahmad, 2012. "Patients’ Willingness to Accept the Risks and Benefits of New Treatments for Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection," The Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, Springer;International Academy of Health Preference Research, vol. 5(4), pages 265-278, December.
    7. Anne Grogan & Fiona Timmins, 2010. "Patients’ perceptions of information and support received from the nurse specialist during HCV treatment," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(19‐20), pages 2869-2878, October.
    8. Ebere Akobundu & Jing Ju & Lisa Blatt & C. Mullins, 2006. "Cost-of-Illness Studies," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 869-890, September.
    9. Martin Zalesak & Kevin Francis & Alex Gedeon & John Gillis & Kyle Hvidsten & Phyllis Kidder & Hong Li & Derek Martyn & Leslie Orne & Amanda Smith & Ann Kwong, 2013. "Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, May.
    10. Uwe Siebert & Gaby Sroczynski & Jürgen Wasem & Wolfgang Greiner & Ulrike Ravens-Sieberer & Pamela Aidelsburger & Bärbel Kurth & Monika Bullinger & J.-Matthias Schulenburg & John Wong & Siegbert Rossol, 2005. "Using competence network collaboration and decision-analytic modeling to assess the cost-effectiveness of interferon α-2b plus ribavirin as initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Germany," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(2), pages 112-123, June.
    11. Yanxia Wang & Qingyun Du & Fu Ren & Shi Liang & De-nan Lin & Qin Tian & Yan Chen & Jia-jia Li, 2014. "Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-26, May.

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