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Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study

Author

Listed:
  • Chengzhen Bao

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Mamat Mayila

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Zhenhua Ye

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Jianbing Wang

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Mingjuan Jin

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Wenjiong He

    (School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Kun Chen

    (School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract

Background : Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum. Methods : This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020. Results : After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend. Conclusions : The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengzhen Bao & Mamat Mayila & Zhenhua Ye & Jianbing Wang & Mingjuan Jin & Wenjiong He & Kun Chen, 2015. "Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:7:p:7172-7184:d:51651
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tom Drake, 2014. "Priority Setting In Global Health: Towards A Minimum Daly Value," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 248-252, February.
    2. Yanxia Wang & Qingyun Du & Fu Ren & Shi Liang & De-nan Lin & Qin Tian & Yan Chen & Jia-jia Li, 2014. "Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-26, May.
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