IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i7p1662-d1367464.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Techniques and Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Aristeidis Mystakidis

    (School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki-Moudania, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
    Information Technologies Institute, Centre for Research & Technology, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Paraskevas Koukaras

    (School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki-Moudania, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
    Information Technologies Institute, Centre for Research & Technology, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Nikolaos Tsalikidis

    (Information Technologies Institute, Centre for Research & Technology, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Dimosthenis Ioannidis

    (Information Technologies Institute, Centre for Research & Technology, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Christos Tjortjis

    (School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki-Moudania, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

Abstract

Distribution System Operators (DSOs) and Aggregators benefit from novel energy forecasting (EF) approaches. Improved forecasting accuracy may make it easier to deal with energy imbalances between generation and consumption. It also helps operations such as Demand Response Management (DRM) in Smart Grid (SG) architectures. For utilities, companies, and consumers to manage energy resources effectively and make educated decisions about energy generation and consumption, EF is essential. For many applications, such as Energy Load Forecasting (ELF), Energy Generation Forecasting (EGF), and grid stability, accurate EF is crucial. The state of the art in EF is examined in this literature review, emphasising cutting-edge forecasting techniques and technologies and their significance for the energy industry. It gives an overview of statistical, Machine Learning (ML)-based, and Deep Learning (DL)-based methods and their ensembles that form the basis of EF. Various time-series forecasting techniques are explored, including sequence-to-sequence, recursive, and direct forecasting. Furthermore, evaluation criteria are reported, namely, relative and absolute metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Coefficient of Determination ( R 2 ), and Coefficient of Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE), as well as the Execution Time (ET), which are used to gauge prediction accuracy. Finally, an overall step-by-step standard methodology often utilised in EF problems is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristeidis Mystakidis & Paraskevas Koukaras & Nikolaos Tsalikidis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Christos Tjortjis, 2024. "Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Techniques and Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-33, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:7:p:1662-:d:1367464
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/7/1662/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/7/1662/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sekhar, Charan & Dahiya, Ratna, 2023. "Robust framework based on hybrid deep learning approach for short term load forecasting of building electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    2. Zheng, Jianqin & Zhang, Haoran & Dai, Yuanhao & Wang, Bohong & Zheng, Taicheng & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Fengwei & Song, Xuan, 2020. "Time series prediction for output of multi-region solar power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    3. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    4. Maltais, Louis-Gabriel & Gosselin, Louis, 2022. "Forecasting of short-term lighting and plug load electricity consumption in single residential units: Development and assessment of data-driven models for different horizons," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    6. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    8. Zhuang, Dian & Gan, Vincent J.L. & Duygu Tekler, Zeynep & Chong, Adrian & Tian, Shuai & Shi, Xing, 2023. "Data-driven predictive control for smart HVAC system in IoT-integrated buildings with time-series forecasting and reinforcement learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    9. Seong-Keon Lee & Seohoon Jin, 2006. "Decision tree approaches for zero-inflated count data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 853-865.
    10. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    11. Charles R. Harris & K. Jarrod Millman & Stéfan J. Walt & Ralf Gommers & Pauli Virtanen & David Cournapeau & Eric Wieser & Julian Taylor & Sebastian Berg & Nathaniel J. Smith & Robert Kern & Matti Picu, 2020. "Array programming with NumPy," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7825), pages 357-362, September.
    12. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    13. Robinson, Caleb & Dilkina, Bistra & Hubbs, Jeffrey & Zhang, Wenwen & Guhathakurta, Subhrajit & Brown, Marilyn A. & Pendyala, Ram M., 2017. "Machine learning approaches for estimating commercial building energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 889-904.
    14. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    15. Petar Sarajcev & Antonijo Kunac & Goran Petrovic & Marin Despalatovic, 2021. "Power System Transient Stability Assessment Using Stacked Autoencoder and Voting Ensemble," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    16. Shepero, Mahmoud & van der Meer, Dennis & Munkhammar, Joakim & Widén, Joakim, 2018. "Residential probabilistic load forecasting: A method using Gaussian process designed for electric load data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 159-172.
    17. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    18. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seyed Mohammad Sharifhosseini & Taher Niknam & Mohammad Hossein Taabodi & Habib Asadi Aghajari & Ehsan Sheybani & Giti Javidi & Motahareh Pourbehzadi, 2024. "Investigating Intelligent Forecasting and Optimization in Electrical Power Systems: A Comprehensive Review of Techniques and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-35, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paraskevas Koukaras & Akeem Mustapha & Aristeidis Mystakidis & Christos Tjortjis, 2024. "Optimizing Building Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    3. Gabriela Badareu & Marius Dalian Doran & Mihai Alexandru Firu & Ionuț Marius Croitoru & Nicoleta Mihaela Doran, 2024. "Exploring the Role of Robots and Artificial Intelligence in Advancing Renewable Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Petros C. Lazaridis & Ioannis E. Kavvadias & Konstantinos Demertzis & Lazaros Iliadis & Lazaros K. Vasiliadis, 2023. "Interpretable Machine Learning for Assessing the Cumulative Damage of a Reinforced Concrete Frame Induced by Seismic Sequences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-31, August.
    5. Yang, Ting & Yang, Zhenning & Li, Fei & Wang, Hengyu, 2024. "A short-term wind power forecasting method based on multivariate signal decomposition and variable selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    6. Rosato, Antonello & Panella, Massimo & Andreotti, Amedeo & Mohammed, Osama A. & Araneo, Rodolfo, 2021. "Two-stage dynamic management in energy communities using a decision system based on elastic net regularization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    7. Mohamed Trabelsi & Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Shady S. Refaat & Tingwen Huang & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2022. "An Effective Hybrid Symbolic Regression–Deep Multilayer Perceptron Technique for PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Michael Greenacre & Patrick J. F Groenen & Trevor Hastie & Alfonso Iodice d’Enza & Angelos Markos & Elena Tuzhilina, 2023. "Principal component analysis," Economics Working Papers 1856, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Kenny-Jesús Flores-Huamán & Alejandro Escudero-Santana & María-Luisa Muñoz-Díaz & Pablo Cortés, 2024. "Lead-Time Prediction in Wind Tower Manufacturing: A Machine Learning-Based Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-34, July.
    10. Nikodinoska, Dragana & Käso, Mathias & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    11. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    12. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    13. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2016. "Nowcasting the Czech Trade Balance," Working Papers 2016/11, Czech National Bank.
    14. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    15. Hou-Tai Chang & Ping-Huai Wang & Wei-Fang Chen & Chen-Ju Lin, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Early Lung Cancer with LDCT and Health Examinations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-12, April.
    16. Margherita Giuzio, 2017. "Genetic algorithm versus classical methods in sparse index tracking," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 40(1), pages 243-256, November.
    17. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Wang, Qiao & Zhou, Wei & Cheng, Yonggang & Ma, Gang & Chang, Xiaolin & Miao, Yu & Chen, E, 2018. "Regularized moving least-square method and regularized improved interpolating moving least-square method with nonsingular moment matrices," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 325(C), pages 120-145.
    19. Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy & Adrian S. Lewis, 2018. "Error Bounds, Quadratic Growth, and Linear Convergence of Proximal Methods," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 919-948, August.
    20. Mkhadri, Abdallah & Ouhourane, Mohamed, 2013. "An extended variable inclusion and shrinkage algorithm for correlated variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 631-644.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:7:p:1662-:d:1367464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.