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Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO 2 Emissions

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  • Jingyi Xiao

    (Department of Geography and GeoTrans Lab, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA)

  • Konstadinos G. Goulias

    (Department of Geography and GeoTrans Lab, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA)

  • Srinath Ravulaparthy

    (Department of Geography and GeoTrans Lab, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA)

  • Shivam Sharda

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, USA)

  • Ling Jin

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

  • C. Anna Spurlock

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

Abstract

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO 2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO 2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingyi Xiao & Konstadinos G. Goulias & Srinath Ravulaparthy & Shivam Sharda & Ling Jin & C. Anna Spurlock, 2024. "Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO 2 Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:23:p:6127-:d:1537245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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