Study on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Building Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in the Urban Agglomeration of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

With the rapid urbanization process, the construction industry has become a significant source of urban carbon emissions in China. The carbon emissions from buildings in the urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, a crucial region for China’s economic development, have attracted considerable attention. This study focuses on urban buildings and aims to investigate the primary influencing factors of building carbon emissions in the urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The study highlights the innovative use of nighttime light remote sensing data to analyze urban carbon emissions and provides an in-depth exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics of building carbon emissions in the urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Utilizing nighttime light remote sensing data similar to DMSP-OLS and provincial-level building carbon emissions, combined with spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models, the study estimates and analyzes the building carbon emissions from 2012 to 2021 in 71 prefecture-level and above administrative regions within the three major urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results indicate a continuous increase in total building carbon emissions in the three major urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, with an accelerating growth rate. Spatially, urban building carbon emissions exhibit enhanced convergence but decreasing correlation over time, demonstrating evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Furthermore, the study identifies economic development level, population size, built-up area, and industrial structure as the main factors influencing building carbon emissions, with industrial structure showing significant impact.