IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i18p4742-d1483625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A 24-Step Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Utilizing KOA-BiTCN-BiGRU-Attentions

Author

Listed:
  • Mingshen Xu

    (Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Wanli Liu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Shijie Wang

    (Department of Economic Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Jingjia Tian

    (Department of Automation, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Peng Wu

    (Engineering Training and Innovation and Entrepreneurship Education Center, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Congjiu Xie

    (Pioneer Navigation Control Technology Co., Ltd., Hefei 230061, China)

Abstract

With the global objectives of achieving a “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” along with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, China’s industrial structure has undergone significant adjustments, resulting in constraints on high-energy consumption and high-emission industries while promoting the rapid growth of green industries. Consequently, these changes have led to an increasingly complex power system structure and presented new challenges for electricity demand forecasting. To address this issue, this study proposes a 24-step multivariate time series short-term load forecasting algorithm model based on KNN data imputation and BiTCN bidirectional temporal convolutional networks combined with BiGRU bidirectional gated recurrent units and attention mechanism. The Kepler adaptive optimization algorithm (KOA) is employed for hyperparameter optimization to effectively enhance prediction accuracy. Furthermore, using real load data from a wind farm in Xinjiang as an example, this paper predicts the electricity load from 1 January to 30 December in 2019. Experimental results demonstrate that our comprehensive short-term load forecasting model exhibits lower prediction errors and superior performance compared to traditional methods, thus holding great value for practical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingshen Xu & Wanli Liu & Shijie Wang & Jingjia Tian & Peng Wu & Congjiu Xie, 2024. "A 24-Step Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Utilizing KOA-BiTCN-BiGRU-Attentions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:18:p:4742-:d:1483625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/18/4742/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/18/4742/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Yi & Qu, Boyang & Wang, Jie & Liang, Jing & Wang, Yanli & Yu, Kunjie & Li, Yaxin & Qiao, Kangjia, 2021. "Short-term load forecasting using multimodal evolutionary algorithm and random vector functional link network based ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Zhang, Jinliang & Siya, Wang & Zhongfu, Tan & Anli, Sun, 2023. "An improved hybrid model for short term power load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    3. Zhang, Tianren & Huang, Yuping & Liao, Hui & Liang, Yu, 2023. "A hybrid electric vehicle load classification and forecasting approach based on GBDT algorithm and temporal convolutional network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandra L’Heureux & Katarina Grolinger & Miriam A. M. Capretz, 2022. "Transformer-Based Model for Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Di Wang & Sha Li & Xiaojin Fu, 2024. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Secondary Cleaning and CNN-BILSTM-Attention," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-23, August.
    3. He, Yan & Zhang, Hongli & Dong, Yingchao & Wang, Cong & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Residential net load interval prediction based on stacking ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    4. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Cao, Tingwei & Xu, Yinliang & Liu, Guowei & Tao, Shengyu & Tang, Wenjun & Sun, Hongbin, 2024. "Feature-enhanced deep learning method for electric vehicle charging demand probabilistic forecasting of charging station," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    6. Haihong Bian & Quance Ren & Zhengyang Guo & Chengang Zhou & Zhiyuan Zhang & Ximeng Wang, 2024. "Predictive Model for EV Charging Load Incorporating Multimodal Travel Behavior and Microscopic Traffic Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Li, Yiyan & Zhang, Si & Hu, Rongxing & Lu, Ning, 2021. "A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    8. Eren, Yavuz & Küçükdemiral, İbrahim, 2024. "A comprehensive review on deep learning approaches for short-term load forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    9. Song, Cairong & Yang, Haidong & Cai, Jianyang & Yang, Pan & Bao, Hao & Xu, Kangkang & Meng, Xian-Bing, 2024. "Multi-energy load forecasting via hierarchical multi-task learning and spatiotemporal attention," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    10. Xie, Xiangmin & Ding, Yuhao & Sun, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Zhisheng & Fan, Jianhua, 2024. "A novel time-series probabilistic forecasting method for multi-energy loads," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    11. Zhang, Mingyue & Han, Yang & Wang, Chaoyang & Yang, Ping & Wang, Congling & Zalhaf, Amr S., 2024. "Ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on similar day clustering and temporal convolutional network with bidirectional long short-term memory model: A case study using DKASC data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    12. Ye, Lin & Li, Yilin & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Li, Zhuo & Lu, Peng, 2022. "A novel integrated method for short-term wind power forecasting based on fluctuation clustering and history matching," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    13. Wang, Han & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Jiawei & Liu, Shihua & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Qu, Tonghui, 2024. "Short-term integrated forecasting method for wind power, solar power, and system load based on variable attention mechanism and multi-task learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    14. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2023. "Analyzing the influence of geopolitical risks on European power prices using a multiresolution causal neural network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Tziolis, Georgios & Spanias, Chrysovalantis & Theodoride, Maria & Theocharides, Spyros & Lopez-Lorente, Javier & Livera, Andreas & Makrides, George & Georghiou, George E., 2023. "Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    16. Yixiang Ma & Lean Yu & Guoxing Zhang, 2022. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Ribeiro, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin & da Silva, Ramon Gomes & Ribeiro, Gabriel Trierweiler & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Cooperative ensemble learning model improves electric short-term load forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    18. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:18:p:4742-:d:1483625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.