IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i12p2878-d1413262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Forecasting: A MAED Application for Sierra Leone’s Electricity Demand (2023–2050)

Author

Listed:
  • Neve Fields

    (STEER Centre, Department of Geography & Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

  • William Collier

    (STEER Centre, Department of Geography & Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

  • Fynn Kiley

    (STEER Centre, Department of Geography & Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

  • David Caulker

    (Ministry of Energy, Government of Sierra Leone, Electricity House, 36 Siaka Steven Street, Freetown, Sierra Leone)

  • William Blyth

    (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London SW1A 2AH, UK)

  • Mark Howells

    (STEER Centre, Department of Geography & Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
    Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Ed Brown

    (STEER Centre, Department of Geography & Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

Abstract

Sierra Leone is an electricity-poor country with one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita rates across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, with ambitious targets to transform and stimulate its economy in the coming decades, energy demand forecasting becomes an integral component of successful energy planning. Through applying the MAED-D (version 2.0.0) demand software, this research study aims to generate Sierra Leone’s electricity demand forecasts from 2023 to 2050. Three novel scenarios (baseline-, high-, and low-demand) are developed based on socio-economic and technical parameters. The baseline scenario considers the current electricity sector as business-as-usual; the high-demand scenario examines an ambitious development future with increased economic diversification and mechanisation, and the low-demand scenario examines more reserved future development. The modelled scenario results project an increase in electricity demand ranging from 7.32 PJ and 12.23 PJ to 5.53 PJ for the baseline-, high-, and low-demand scenarios, respectively, by 2050. This paper provides a base set of best-available data needed to produce an electricity demand model for Sierra Leone which can be used as a capacity-building tool for in-country energy planning alongside further integration into data modelling pipelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Neve Fields & William Collier & Fynn Kiley & David Caulker & William Blyth & Mark Howells & Ed Brown, 2024. "Long-Term Forecasting: A MAED Application for Sierra Leone’s Electricity Demand (2023–2050)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:2878-:d:1413262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/12/2878/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/12/2878/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konneh, Keifa Vamba & Masrur, Hasan & Konneh, David A. & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2022. "Independent or complementary power system configuration: A decision making approach for sustainable electrification of an urban environment in Sierra Leone," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    2. Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 311-333.
    3. Nigel Gilbert & Petra Ahrweiler & Pete Barbrook-Johnson & Kavin Preethi Narasimhan & Helen Wilkinson, 2018. "Computational Modelling of Public Policy: Reflections on Practice," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Giacomo Falchetta & Nicolò Stevanato & Magda Moner-Girona & Davide Mazzoni & Emanuela Colombo & Manfred Hafner, 2020. "M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning," Working Papers 2020.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Wu, Han & Liang, Yan & Heng, Jiani, 2023. "Pulse-diagnosis-inspired multi-feature extraction deep network for short-term electricity load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    4. Pesantez, Jorge E. & Li, Binbin & Lee, Christopher & Zhao, Zhizhen & Butala, Mark & Stillwell, Ashlynn S., 2023. "A Comparison Study of Predictive Models for Electricity Demand in a Diverse Urban Environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Vaziri Rad, Mohammad Amin & Kasaeian, Alibakhsh & Niu, Xiaofeng & Zhang, Kai & Mahian, Omid, 2023. "Excess electricity problem in off-grid hybrid renewable energy systems: A comprehensive review from challenges to prevalent solutions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 538-560.
    6. Noeldeke, Beatrice & Winter, Etti & Ntawuhiganayo, Elisée Bahati, 2022. "Representing human decision-making in agent-based simulation models: Agroforestry adoption in rural Rwanda," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Louise Freebairn & Jo-An Atkinson & Nathaniel D Osgood & Paul M Kelly & Geoff McDonnell & Lucie Rychetnik, 2019. "Turning conceptual systems maps into dynamic simulation models: An Australian case study for diabetes in pregnancy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, June.
    8. Anja Bauer & Leo Capari & Daniela Fuchs & Titus Udrea, 2023. "Diversification, integration, and opening: developments in modelling for policy," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 977-987.
    9. de Moura, Fernanda Senra & Barbrook-Johnson, Peter, 2022. "Using data-driven systems mapping to contextualise complexity economics insights," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-27, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Falchetta, Giacomo & Stevanato, Nicolò & Moner-Girona, Magda & Mazzoni, Davide & Colombo, Emanuela & Hafner, Manfred, 2020. "M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning," FEP: Future Energy Program 305213, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > FEP: Future Energy Program.
    11. Abid, Hamza & Thakur, Jagruti & Khatiwada, Dilip & Bauner, David, 2021. "Energy storage integration with solar PV for increased electricity access: A case study of Burkina Faso," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Chris Matthew & Catalina Spataru, 2023. "Time-Use Data Modelling of Domestic, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Demand for the Scottish Islands," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-25, June.
    13. Di Leo, Senatro & Caramuta, Pietro & Curci, Paola & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2020. "Regression analysis for energy demand projection: An application to TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    14. Komlan Hector Seth Tete & Yrébégnan Moussa Soro & Djerambete Aristide Nadjingar & Rory Victor Jones, 2024. "Ownership, Patterns of Use and Electricity Consumption of Domestic Appliances in Urban Households of the West African Monetary and Economic Union: A Case Study of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-39, July.
    15. Tamal Chowdhury & Samiul Hasan & Hemal Chowdhury & Abul Hasnat & Ahmad Rashedi & M. R. M. Asyraf & Mohamad Zaki Hassan & Sadiq M. Sait, 2022. "Sizing of an Island Standalone Hybrid System Considering Economic and Environmental Parameters: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Casey R. Corrado & Suzanne M. DeLong & Emily G. Holt & Edward Y. Hua & Andreas Tolk, 2022. "Combining Green Metrics and Digital Twins for Sustainability Planning and Governance of Smart Buildings and Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Beatrice Nöldeke & Etti Winter & Yves Laumonier & Trifosa Simamora, 2021. "Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-31, April.
    18. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Stefano Yohanes Munaiseche & Abdul Rahman Dilapanga & Recky Herold Elby Sendouw & Marthinus Mandagi, 2022. "Evaluation of Beriman's Terminal Retribution at Tomohon City," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 29-41, March.
    20. Paulo Gonçalves & Paolo Ferrari & Luca Crivelli & Emiliano Albanese, 2023. "Model‐informed health system reorganization during emergencies," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1323-1344, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:2878-:d:1413262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.