IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v144y2020ics0301421520304304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century

Author

Listed:
  • Dioha, Michael O.
  • Kumar, Atul

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21) mandated countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). In this paper, we develop the TIMES-Nigeria model and applied it to assess the impacts of Nigeria's NDC mitigation strategies and the ripple effects on the energy system. To this end, we modelled four mitigation scenarios in addition to the reference scenario. Increased renewables penetration, energy efficiency improvements, and fuel switching are identified as key mitigation strategies in the Nigerian NDC. Our results reveal profound restructuring of the Nigerian energy system with changes in the supply mix which mainly favour the deployment of solar PV. Our analysis shows that the residential sector has the largest potential for reducing energy demand while the power sector should be the focus for CO2 emissions mitigation. Furthermore, we explore the impacts of carbon tax on the energy system. Our analysis discloses a significant improvement in energy security due to mitigation actions. We also shed lights on the local and international implications of the results. While our analysis should be counted as a preliminary study because of limited available country data, the outcomes are expected to provide useful insights with respect to low-carbon transition in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111703
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520304304
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111703?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Rogan, Fionn & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 169-189.
    2. Ouedraogo, Nadia S., 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1047-1067.
    3. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
    4. Mu, Yaqian & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "The economic impact of China's INDC: Distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2955-2966.
    5. Hof, Andries F. & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Admiraal, Annemiek & Roelfsema, Mark & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2°C and 1.5°C," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 30-40.
    6. Cherp, Aleh & Jewell, Jessica, 2014. "The concept of energy security: Beyond the four As," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 415-421.
    7. Andrea Herbst & Felipe Andrés Toro & Felix Reitze & Eberhard Jochem, 2012. "Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(II), pages 111-135, June.
    8. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-23, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    10. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    11. Niklas Höhne & Hanna Fekete & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Andries F. Hof & Takeshi Kuramochi, 2018. "Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 425-441, April.
    12. Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    13. Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha & Limmeechokchai, Bundit, 2013. "Energy security and co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement in three Asian countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 491-503.
    14. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply–demand in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Heleen L. van Soest & Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Michel G. J. den Elzen & Massimo Tavoni & Keigo Akimoto & Katherine V. Calvin & Panagiotis Fragkos & Alban Kitous & Gu, 2017. "Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 491-504, June.
    16. Johannes Bollen & Bruno Guay & Stéphanie Jamet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2009. "Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Literature Review and New Results," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 693, OECD Publishing.
    17. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Longa, Francesco Dalla & van der Laan, Anouk & Jan Kramer, Gert, 2018. "An integrated assessment of pathways for low-carbon development in Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 387-395.
    18. P. R. Shukla & Subash Dhar & Diptiranjan Mahapatra, 2008. "Low-carbon society scenarios for India," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 156-176, December.
    19. Maurizio Gargiulo & Brian Ó Gallachóir, 2013. "Long-term energy models: Principles, characteristics, focus, and limitations," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 158-177, March.
    20. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Comparing emissions mitigation efforts across countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 501-515, May.
    21. Yongping Zhai & Lingshui Mo & Madeleine Rawlins, 2018. "The Impact of Nationally Determined Contributions on the Energy Sector: Implications for ADB and Its Developing Member Countries," Working Papers id:12893, eSocialSciences.
    22. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
    23. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.
    24. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    25. Qi, Tianyu & Weng, Yuyan, 2016. "Economic impacts of an international carbon market in achieving the INDC targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 886-893.
    26. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Paroussos, Leonidas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Iyer, Gokul & He, Chen-Min & Oshiro, Ken, 2018. "Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 462-473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shari, Babajide Epe & Dioha, Michael O. & Abraham-Dukuma, Magnus C. & Sobanke, Victor O. & Emodi, Nnaemeka V., 2022. "Clean cooking energy transition in Nigeria: Policy implications for Developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 319-343.
    2. Bissiri, Mounirah & Moura, Pedro & Perez, Ricardo Cunha & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & da Silva, Patrícia Pereira, 2024. "Generation capacity expansion planning with spatially-resolved electricity demand and increasing variable renewable energy supply: Perspectives from power pooling in West Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    3. Fan, Shuting & An, Kangxin & Zhang, Shihui & Wang, Can, 2024. "Cost-effective energy development pathway considering air quality co-benefits under climate target: A case study of Anhui Province in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    4. Grottera, Carolina & Naspolini, Giovanna Ferrazzo & La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Nogueira, Tainan de Farias & Hebeda, Otto & Dubeux, Carolina Burle Schmidt & Goes, Georg, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Bissiri, Mounirah & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Moura, Pedro & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2024. "Are West Africa's policy, planning, and regulatory frameworks missing the harmonization piece of the power pooling-renewable energy puzzle?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Assoumou, Edi & McIsaac, Florent, 2022. "Côte d'Ivoire's electricity challenge in 2050: Reconciling economic development and climate commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Kouvaritakis, Nikos, 2018. "Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2 °C pathways for major economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 965-978.
    2. Bissiri, M. & Moura, P. & Figueiredo, N.C. & Silva, P.P., 2020. "Towards a renewables-based future for West African States: A review of power systems planning approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Ayuketah, Yvan & Gyamfi, Samuel & Diawuo, Felix Amankwah & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2023. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of a low-carbon power generation system in Cameroon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Trotter, Philipp A., 2022. "The slow transition to solar, wind and other non-hydro renewables in Africa – Responding to and building on a critique by Kincer, Moss and Thurber (2021)," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    5. Mina Masoomi & Mostafa Panahi & Reza Samadi, 2022. "Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5667-5693, April.
    6. Ramchandra Bhandari & Surendra Pandit, 2018. "Electricity as a Cooking Means in Nepal—A Modelling Tool Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    7. den Elzen, Michel & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Höhne, Niklas & Cantzler, Jasmin & Esmeijer, Kendall & Fekete, Hanna & Fransen, Taryn & Keramidas, Kimon & Roelfsema, Mark & Sha, Fu & van Soest, Heleen & Vand, 2019. "Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 238-250.
    8. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Paroussos, Leonidas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Iyer, Gokul & He, Chen-Min & Oshiro, Ken, 2018. "Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 462-473.
    9. Shahid, Muhammad & Ullah, Kafait & Imran, Kashif & Masroor, Neha & Sajid, Muhammad Bilal, 2022. "Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    10. Bissiri, Mounirah & Moura, Pedro & Perez, Ricardo Cunha & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & da Silva, Patrícia Pereira, 2024. "Generation capacity expansion planning with spatially-resolved electricity demand and increasing variable renewable energy supply: Perspectives from power pooling in West Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    11. Bissiri, Mounirah & Moura, Pedro & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia, 2020. "A geospatial approach towards defining cost-optimal electrification pathways in West Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    13. Xinyu Han & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in East Africa Using the MGM, NMGM, MGM-ARIMA, and NMGM-ARIMA Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    14. Riva, Fabio & Gardumi, Francesco & Tognollo, Annalisa & Colombo, Emanuela, 2019. "Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 32-46.
    15. Nyiko Worship Hlongwane & Olebogeng David Daw, 2023. "Renewable Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of South Africa and Zimbabwe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 197-206, May.
    16. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Aghahosseini, Arman & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Transition towards decarbonised power systems and its socio-economic impacts in West Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1092-1112.
    17. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2019. "Low carbon alternatives and their implications for Fiji's electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-19.
    18. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    19. Ivan Darma Wangsa & Tao Ming Yang & Hui Ming Wee, 2018. "The Effect of Price-Dependent Demand on the Sustainable Electrical Energy Supply Chain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Malka, Lorenc & Bidaj, Flamur & Kuriqi, Alban & Jaku, Aldona & Roçi, Rexhina & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu, 2023. "Energy system analysis with a focus on future energy demand projections: The case of Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.