IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v242y2019icp311-333.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries

Author

Listed:
  • Adeoye, Omotola
  • Spataru, Catalina

Abstract

The Economic Community of West African States aims to achieve 100% electrification rates by 2030 in all member countries. To achieve this ambitious target, electricity generation capacities need to be increased significantly. Forecasting hourly electricity demand is imperative for capacity planners in optimizing investment options and ensuring reliable electricity supply. However, modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries can be a challenge due to paucity of historical demand data and methodological frameworks that adequately capture technology transitions and urban-rural communities. In this study, we address this gap by developing an hourly electricity demand model for 14 West African countries in the year 2016 and 2030. The model takes into account electrification rates, available household appliances, occupancy patterns of household members, type of day, available daylight hours and hourly weather conditions. Annual electricity demand in non-residential sectors and electricity access rates in urban and rural households are forecasted using multiple regression analysis. We validated the developed model using actual 2016 monthly and annual electricity demand data. The results show the seasonal variations of electricity demand, with hourly electricity demand in dry seasons relatively higher than demand in wet seasons. The results also indicate that in 2030, electricity demand in the West African region is estimated to be five times its 2016 level. The methodology presented in this study can be applicable for modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries that have scarce historical hourly demand data, a significant electricity supply-demand gap, and varying electricity access rates in urban and rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 311-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:311-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919304684
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandels, C. & Widén, J. & Nordström, L., 2014. "Forecasting household consumer electricity load profiles with a combined physical and behavioral approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-278.
    2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    3. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-23, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Gnansounou, Edgard & Bayem, Herman & Bednyagin, Denis & Dong, Jun, 2007. "Strategies for regional integration of electricity supply in West Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4142-4153, August.
    5. Ouedraogo, Nadia S., 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1047-1067.
    6. Sadri, A. & Ardehali, M.M. & Amirnekooei, K., 2014. "General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 831-843.
    7. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra, 2017. "Forecasting electricity demand for Turkey: Modeling periodic variations and demand segregation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 287-296.
    8. Sanoh, Aly & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Kocal, Selcuk & Sherpa, Shaky & Modi, Vijay, 2014. "The economics of clean energy resource development and grid interconnection in Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 598-609.
    9. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    10. Muratori, Matteo & Roberts, Matthew C. & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Marano, Vincenzo & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2013. "A highly resolved modeling technique to simulate residential power demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 465-473.
    11. Rosnes, Orvika & Vennemo, Haakon, 2012. "The cost of providing electricity to Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1318-1328.
    12. Kipping, A. & Trømborg, E., 2017. "Modeling hourly consumption of electricity and district heat in non-residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 473-486.
    13. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply–demand in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    15. Grandjean, A. & Adnot, J. & Binet, G., 2012. "A review and an analysis of the residential electric load curve models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6539-6565.
    16. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    17. Soares, Lacir J. & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: A comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 630-644.
    18. Pielow, Amy & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Roberts, Matthew C., 2012. "Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 533-540.
    19. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
    20. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
    21. Andersen, Frits Møller & Baldini, Mattia & Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Carsten Lynge, 2017. "Households’ hourly electricity consumption and peak demand in Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 607-619.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riva, Fabio & Gardumi, Francesco & Tognollo, Annalisa & Colombo, Emanuela, 2019. "Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 32-46.
    2. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Energy futures modelling for African countries: LEAP model application," WIDER Working Paper Series 056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Ouedraogo, Nadia S., 2017. "Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 457-471.
    4. Xinyu Han & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in East Africa Using the MGM, NMGM, MGM-ARIMA, and NMGM-ARIMA Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Trotter, Philipp A. & Maconachie, Roy & McManus, Marcelle C., 2018. "Solar energy's potential to mitigate political risks: The case of an optimised Africa-wide network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 108-126.
    6. Jose Juan Caceres-Hernandez & Gloria Martin-Rodriguez & Jonay Hernandez-Martin, 2022. "A proposal for measuring and comparing seasonal variations in hourly economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1995-2021, April.
    7. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    8. Bissiri, M. & Moura, P. & Figueiredo, N.C. & Silva, P.P., 2020. "Towards a renewables-based future for West African States: A review of power systems planning approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Shahid, Muhammad & Ullah, Kafait & Imran, Kashif & Masroor, Neha & Sajid, Muhammad Bilal, 2022. "Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    10. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    11. Vanegas Cantarero, María Mercedes, 2018. "Reviewing the Nicaraguan transition to a renewable energy system: Why is “business-as-usual” no longer an option?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 580-592.
    12. Bissiri, Mounirah & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Moura, Pedro & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2024. "Are West Africa's policy, planning, and regulatory frameworks missing the harmonization piece of the power pooling-renewable energy puzzle?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    13. Ramchandra Bhandari & Surendra Pandit, 2018. "Electricity as a Cooking Means in Nepal—A Modelling Tool Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    14. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Energy futures modelling for African countries: LEAP model application," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-56, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Yamaguchi, Yohei & Iwafune, Yumiko & Hidaka, Kazuyoshi & Meier, Alan & Yagita, Yoshie & Kawamoto, Hisaki & Nishikiori, Soichi, 2020. "Energy demand science for a decarbonized society in the context of the residential sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Santika, Wayan G. & Anisuzzaman, M. & Simsek, Yeliz & Bahri, Parisa A. & Shafiullah, G.M. & Urmee, Tania, 2020. "Implications of the Sustainable Development Goals on national energy demand: The case of Indonesia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Yildiz, B. & Bilbao, J.I. & Dore, J. & Sproul, A.B., 2017. "Recent advances in the analysis of residential electricity consumption and applications of smart meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 402-427.
    19. Trotter, Philipp A., 2022. "The slow transition to solar, wind and other non-hydro renewables in Africa – Responding to and building on a critique by Kincer, Moss and Thurber (2021)," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    20. Nyiko Worship Hlongwane & Olebogeng David Daw, 2023. "Electricity Consumption and Population Growth in South Africa: A Panel Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 374-383, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:311-333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.