IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v251y2019ic45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The value of enhanced flexibility of gas-fired power plants: A real options analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Glensk, Barbara
  • Madlener, Reinhard

Abstract

The promotion of electricity from renewable energies in Germany causes difficulties in the profitable operation of many modern conventional power plants. Also, fluctuating availability of power from renewable energy sources requires flexible conventional plants, i.e. power plants which are able to react fast to these fluctuations. In this paper, we propose a model which provides some decision support tool for the operators of conventional power plants regarding investments in technical upgrades aimed at enhancing the flexible operation of these power plants. Because of the irreversible character of the investments considered we apply a real options approach to the gas-fired power plant investigated. We compare the electricity price and the spark spread as profitability indicators and sources of uncertainty, and use a simplified 3-stage definition of the power plant’s operation strategy. In a case study for a combined cycle gas-fired turbine plant recently built in Germany, we find that the retrofit decisions depend strongly on economic parameters, such as the level of the operation and maintenance costs, as well as the enabled longer operation time on the maximum level. The proposed procedure can help to assess the expected future profitability role of conventional power plants, and supports the decision-making process regarding both reinvestments and optimal operation of power plants in markets with high shares of variable renewables.

Suggested Citation

  • Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "The value of enhanced flexibility of gas-fired power plants: A real options analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919307949
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.121?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richter, Marcel & Oeljeklaus, Gerd & Görner, Klaus, 2019. "Improving the load flexibility of coal-fired power plants by the integration of a thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 607-621.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Shahnazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 271-279.
    4. Jain, Shashi & Roelofs, Ferry & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2013. "Valuing modular nuclear power plants in finite time decision horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 625-636.
    5. Wojcik, Jacek D. & Wang, Jihong, 2018. "Feasibility study of Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power plant integration with Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (ACAES)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 477-489.
    6. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    7. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
    8. Hauck, Dominic & Hof, Andries F., 2017. "Abandonment of natural gas production and investment in carbon storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 322-329.
    9. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.
    10. Vorushylo, I. & Keatley, P. & Hewitt, NJ, 2016. "Most promising flexible generators for the wind dominated market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 564-575.
    11. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Mancini, Mauro, 2016. "Investment and risk appraisal in energy storage systems: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 114-131.
    12. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
    13. Alexander, David Richard & Mo, Mengjia & Stent, Alan Fraser, 2012. "Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 114-122.
    14. Pless, Jacquelyn & Arent, Douglas J. & Logan, Jeffrey & Cochran, Jaquelin & Zinaman, Owen, 2016. "Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 378-390.
    15. Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein‐Erik Fleten, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
    16. Rosen, Christiane & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "An Option-Based Approach for the Fair Pricing of Flexible Electricity Supply," FCN Working Papers 10/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    17. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2018. "Flexibility Options for Lignite-Fired Power Plants: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Andreas Fink & Armin Fügenschuh & Martin Josef Geiger (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2016, pages 157-163, Springer.
    18. Chung-Li Tseng & Kyle Y. Lin, 2007. "A Framework Using Two-Factor Price Lattices for Generation Asset Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 234-251, April.
    19. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    20. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    21. Odetayo, Babatunde & MacCormack, John & Rosehart, W.D. & Zareipour, Hamidreza, 2018. "A real option assessment of flexibilities in the integrated planning of natural gas distribution network and distributed natural gas-fired power generations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 257-272.
    22. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    23. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Fanali, Lorenzo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Sparber, Wolfram, 2018. "Incorporating combined cycle gas turbine flexibility constraints and additional costs into the EPLANopt model: The Italian case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-43.
    24. Hach, Daniel & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 270-280.
    25. Peter Zweifel & Aaron Praktiknjo & Georg Erdmann, 2017. "Energy Economics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-662-53022-1, April.
    26. Qadrdan, Meysam & Ameli, Hossein & Strbac, Goran & Jenkins, Nicholas, 2017. "Efficacy of options to address balancing challenges: Integrated gas and electricity perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 181-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Runke & Yang, Cheng & Qi, Hanjie & Ma, Xiaoqian, 2023. "Synergetic performance of gas turbine combined cycle unit with inlet cooled by quasi-isobaric ACAES exhaust," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    2. Gharibpour, Hassan & Aminifar, Farrokh & Rahmati, Iman & Keshavarz, Arezou, 2021. "Dual variable decomposition to discriminate the cost imposed by inflexible units in electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    3. Bucksteeg, Michael & Wiedmann, Michael & Pöstges, Arne & Haller, Markus & Böttger, Diana & Ruhnau, Oliver & Schmitz, Richard, 2022. "The transformation of integrated electricity and heat systems—Assessing mid-term policies using a model comparison approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Araya, Natalia & Ramírez, Yendery & Cisternas, Luis A. & Kraslawski, Andrzej, 2021. "Use of real options to enhance water-energy nexus in mine tailings management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2024. "A sequential real options analysis for renewable power-to-hydrogen plants for Germany and California," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Martine Van den Boomen & Sjoerd Van der Meulen & Jonathan Van Ekris & Roel Spanjers & Olle Ten Voorde & Janwim Mulder & Peter Blommaart, 2021. "Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Chen, Xin & Wenjia Zhou,, 2023. "Support carbon neutrality target — Which flexible power source is the best option for China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    9. Houd Al-Obaidli & Rajesh Govindan & Tareq Al-Ansari, 2023. "Multidimensional Risk-Based Real Options Valuation for Low-Carbon Cogeneration Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Beiron, Johanna & Montañés, Rubén M. & Normann, Fredrik & Johnsson, Filip, 2020. "Flexible operation of a combined cycle cogeneration plant – A techno-economic assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Zhi, Zhang & Ming, Zhou & Bo, Yuan & Zun, Guo & Zhaoyuan, Wu & Gengyin, Li, 2023. "Multipath retrofit planning approach for coal-fired power plants in low-carbon power system transitions: Shanxi Province case in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Zhou, Yuanqi & Yang, Jinqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2023. "Optimizing energy efficiency investments in steel firms: A real options model considering carbon trading and tax cuts during challenging economic conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    14. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2021. "A Sequential Real Options Analysis for Renewable Power-to-Hydrogen Plants in Germany and California," FCN Working Papers 1/2021, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    15. Mosquera-López, Stephania & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Pricing the risk due to weather conditions in small variable renewable energy projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    16. Mohammad Mehdi Amiri & Mohammad Taghi Ameli & Goran Strbac & Danny Pudjianto & Hossein Ameli, 2024. "The Role of Flexibility in the Integrated Operation of Low-Carbon Gas and Electricity Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-26, May.
    17. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Liu, Yini & Huang, Kangdi, 2021. "Robust operation interval of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic power system to cope with emergencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Real Options Analysis of the Flexible Operation of an Enhanced Gas-Fired Power Plant," FCN Working Papers 11/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    2. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    4. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.
    5. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "Evaluating the Enhanced Flexibility of Lignite-Fired Power Plants: A Real Options Analysis," FCN Working Papers 107/2016, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    7. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    8. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    10. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003. "Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment," MPRA Paper 217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    11. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    12. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2016. "The spark spread and clean spark spread option based valuation of a power plant with multiple turbines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-327.
    13. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Bunn, Derek W. & Redondo-Martin, Jorge & Muñoz-Hernandez, José I. & Diaz-Cachinero, Pablo, 2019. "Analysis of coal conversion to biomass as a transitional technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 752-760.
    15. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    16. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
    17. Briest, Gordon & Lauven, Lars-Peter & Kupfer, Stefan & Lukas, Elmar, 2022. "Leaving well-worn paths: Reversal of the investment-uncertainty relationship and flexible biogas plant operation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1162-1176.
    18. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2024. "A sequential real options analysis for renewable power-to-hydrogen plants for Germany and California," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    20. Andreolli, Francesca & D’Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2022. "Valuing investments in domestic PV-Battery Systems under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.